IN the next three decades, the country’s population will cross the 130 million-mark. (See, “Filipino population may breach 130-M mark in next three decades—PSA data,” in the BusinessMirror, January 31, 2024). Per the 2020 census conducted by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the number of Filipinos has reached more than 109 million. By next year, this is expected to expand to 114 million.
In 35 years, the PSA said around 29 million people will be added to the projected midyear population of 109.2 million in 2020. This means that the country’s agriculture sector would also have to raise its output to meet the food needs of an expanding population. Agriculture production would have to increase at the same pace or even faster than the country’s population growth.
Ensuring the access of young Filipinos to affordable food is one of the ways that the Philippines would be able to reap the so-called demographic dividend. The future members of the country’s workforce will be dull and listless if all they could manage to eat in their homes are processed food and instant noodles. Growing children need nutritious food, such as vegetables, fresh fruits, and lean meat and poultry.
However, significantly raising the productivity and output of the farm sector to make food affordable is increasingly becoming a difficult task for policymakers and planters. The Philippines continues to import huge quantities of food items, including rice—its staple food. And despite the billions of pesos poured into the sector, local output could still not keep up with demand.
While rice output in 2023 can be considered a major achievement by the government as it was the first time in history that it breached the 20-million metric ton mark, the volume in milled terms was not enough to meet domestic demand. The country still had to import more than 3 MMT last year. And the figure could rise again if El Niño worsens, which could slash rice production.
Apart from the threat of climate change, the Philippines must also grapple with other international developments that have upended food trade. These include the conflict in Eastern Europe as well as disruptions to international logistics, such as the Red Sea attacks, which have already caused some local manufacturers to reduce their capacity. (See, “84 locators ‘significantly’ affected by Red Sea crisis, PEZA poll shows,” in the BusinessMirror, January 31, 2024). The cost of inputs, such as fertilizer, remains elevated due to the Russia-Ukraine war that started in February 2022.
It would do well for our policymakers to accelerate the implementation of crucial reforms that will allow the agriculture sector to feed the future generations of Filipinos amid these challenges. Minimal increases in output are not enough to ensure food security as well as increase the available raw materials for the manufacturing sector. Necessary investments to raise agricultural productivity and increase the resilience of the sector to climate change must be made as soon as possible to give our young people a fighting chance to succeed.