The Filipino population could breach 130 million mark in three decades, according to the latest data released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
Based on the 2020 Census-Based National Population Projections, this estimate follows a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 children in 2021 and 2022 and between 2025 until 2055. This is scenario 2 of the estimates.
Scenario 2, PSA said, assumed a slow decline from 2.1 children in 2020 to 1.9 children in 2021 and 2022 and between 2025 until 2055.
“The Philippine population is projected to increase for the next 35 years across different TFR scenarios,” PSA said.
Under the second scenario, there will be 69.75 million males and 68.92 million females. The largest population in terms of age for both sexes is for the age bracket of 40 to 44 reaching 10.66 million.
Meanwhile, the first scenario takes into account a TFR of 1.9 children based on the results of the 2022 National Demographic and Health Survey.
However, it assumed the TFR will rebound to 2.1 children, which is the replacement level, between 2025 and 2055. This will lead to a total population of 145.37 million by 2055.
With this, there will be 73.22 million males and 72.15 million females. In terms of age for both sexes, the largest bracket is the same as scenario 2.
The third and last scenario assumed that there would be a continuous decline in TFR until 2055 when the TFR will be much lower at 1.7 children.
This will result in a total population of 132.319 million with 66.47 million males and 65.85 million females. The age bracket with the largest population remains the same for scenario 2.
Meanwhile, the PSA also said the country’s midyear population is projected to reach 138.67 million by 2055.
In a span of 35 years, around 29.47 million people will be added to the projected midyear population of 109.2 million population in 2020.
The average annual growth rate is estimated to decline to 0.35 percent for the period 2050-2055 from 0.84 percent for the period 2020-2025.
PSA also said the population aged 60 years and over comprised about 8.5 percent of the midyear population in 2020.
The percentage share of this age group is expected to increase to about 19.6 percent of the projected midyear population in 2055.
Meanwhile, the percentage of children under five (5) years of age is estimated to decrease to 6 percent in 2055 from 10.2 percent in 2020.
The data also showed that females of childbearing ages, that is 15 to 49 years old, comprised about one-fourth (25.6 percent) of the midyear population in 2020.
The PSA said the percentage of this age group is projected to slightly decrease to 23.3 percent in 2055.
The working-age population, that is 15 to 64 years old, accounted for 64 percent of the midyear population in 2020. This group is expected to comprise 67 percent of the projected midyear population by 2055. -30-