The amount of inaccurate information that “We the People” have had to swim through this year is staggering. The only parallel I can think of is from the Adam Sandler movie Billy Madison.
“Mr. Madison, what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.”
Governments, media, and the experts deserve no points. Perhaps I am exaggerating. Think again.
Time Magazine, October 20, 2020: “Why the Swedish Model for Fighting Covid-19 Is a Disaster.” The Daily Express-UK, October 4, 2020: “Sweden now a coronavirus success story.” That is what the public must contend with. Here is what we need to be hearing from Canada’s McGill University’s Office of Science and Society.
“Which Sweden Do You Want to Believe In? Sweden’s strategy to contain the coronavirus is neither a resounding success nor a ghastly failure. It’s more complicated than you have been led to believe.” And who has been “leading us to believe”? Governments, media, and the experts.
The McGill Office for Science and Society has a motto: “Separating Sense from Nonsense.”
Enough of my whining. There is a more serious issue to think about and that is the economy and the longer-term effects for the lockdowns. In the Philippines, the economic discussion is on several issues that make good stories and occasionally scare headlines.
Unemployment is high. Exports and imports are down. International reserves are high because of lower trade. International tourism no longer exists. Remittances from Filipinos are flat at best.
Assume for a moment the pandemic is finished. The distribution of the vaccine has the coronavirus in fear and running back to the “Chinese bats” from which it came.
In that case, all the above will be self-correcting to some extent, each with different time period. However, the great concern that is not being talked about by governments, media, and the experts is the systemic economic changes from the quarantines. That is what you need to be genuinely concerned about.
The mass deaths from the Black Plague also killed the feudal system as it created a labor shortage, forcing employees to pay workers wages high enough so that the “peasants” could save money and grow the middle class.
This time the wealth redistribution is reversed. In the US, Walmart lives and Dick’s Barbershop dies. McDonald’s survives; Bob’s Burgers does not. Large corporations, having interests aligned with politicians, are considered essential. Small businesses are not.
Even if you agree with the message, the optics of the world’s richest (or second or whatever) man Bill Gates telling other people to shut down their businesses for six months are about as bad as it gets. Academic experts that have never created a single job offer no advice—while calling for more and more restrictions—on how a business can survive even while the owner has no income to feed his family.
Sorry, they do have a solution. All the government needs to do is borrow the money and give it away. Eventually somebody, somewhere will magically pay off that debt. And then to help the employees that might get sick, the US “Families First Coronavirus Response Act” being proposed, “requires businesses to provide two weeks of paid sick leave for quarantined employees and/or employees experiencing Covid-19-related symptoms.”
Note this: “The FFCRA only applies to employers with fewer than 500 employees.” Walmart lives and Dick’s Barbershop dies.
E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Visit my web site at www.mangunonmarkets.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by the COL Financial Group Inc.