AS anticipated, the panic and drama that surrounded the medical aspects of the pandemic have shifted to economic concerns. That is probably a good omen as it may show that we will all live to fight another day.
Perhaps life was better before the Internet. At least then people could be hysterical in the privacy of their own comfort room and cry themselves to sleep without the rest of the world having to listen.
But the Internet has allowed us to follow the experts for up-to-the-minute updates or developments. The World Health Organization has gone from “It’s no big deal” to “We’re ALL gonna DIE” and now with “Some of us are going to die.” This week alone the “settled science” is very fluid.
CNN.com: “The spread of Covid-19 by someone who is not showing symptoms appears to be very rare, Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s technical lead for coronavirus response and head of the emerging diseases and zoonoses unit, said during a media briefing in Geneva on Monday.” Well that is a relief.
Except by Tuesday, CNN.com: “We do know that some people who are asymptomatic, who don’t have symptoms, can transmit the virus on,” said Maria Van Kerkhove. But it may boil down to how one defines “asymptomatic.” Sounds like Bill Clinton trying to answer the question if he had sex with Monica Lewinsky (Google that youngsters). Apparently “yes” and “no” are not in the question-answering vocabulary of politicians and experts.
In mid-March we all faced a precarious unknown future. It was worrisome and we prepared the best we could by stocking essentials. I have a 15-liter carboy of ethyl alcohol in my stock room now almost empty. We sacrificed a tremendous amount and most of us tried to keep a positive attitude through it all because…why not.
We survived. We should be extremely grateful that only a thousand Filipinos died at the hand of Covid-19 and not 100,000 by now. But obviously we are not “out of the woods” yet, especially economically.
The economic numbers for April were expectedly terrible and May will probably be as dismal. The real test will come in a few weeks when June data is released as the quarantine is lifted. Then we can look with some accuracy toward the future.
Returning overseas workers are a problem, as we have no idea how well and how soon the domestic economy will absorb them. Unemployment hit a historic high in April, as did the fall in exports. Who expected anything different? “German exports plunged over 30 percent in April, the steepest fall since records began in 1950.” “Canada: Exports plunged 82 percent in April.” “US April imports from Asia plunged 18.5 percent.”
Neda’s Karl Kendrick T. Chua says, “Government is not capable to fund the ambitious economic stimulus approved by the House of Representatives.” Good. The private sector does not need any more tax burden right now.
“The Asian Development Bank has approved a $1.5 billion loan to help the Philippine government fund its Covid-19 response program.” That’s also good. Ukraine with a population 42 million: “IMF Approves $5 Billion In Aid For Ukraine To Shore Up Economy.”
The drama will continue as we try to recover in the next three months. And forget what might happen a year from now. We have to take this all in small batches. I wrote, “As we reopen our economic life, we have no idea how fast economic activity will recover.” We will continue to sacrifice. We will endure and prosper.
E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Visit my web site at www.mangunonmarkets.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by the COL Financial Group Inc.
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