There are many issues that require our attention. There is the President’s health, of course. Everyone is watching the developments in vice presidential election protest, as well as the Barretto family telenovela. Criminal cops are “Ninjas” and cartoon movies are promoting Chinese geographical propaganda.
In the larger picture, “the system” is still working. All systems work until they don’t, and that is the grave danger.
Fortunately, our local pundits have all the questions to the problems that ail our nation even if they have few, if any, answers. However, that is fine also as it allows for some mostly sensible discussion. That, too, shows the system is working.
Yet, the situation that I have spoken of previously in Chile better be a wake-up call as to how quickly the system can break and fail.
The population of Chile is about 18 million. As I mentioned, the per- capita gross domestic product is $15,000 versus about $3,000 for the Philippines. In purchasing power, the numbers are $23,000 and $8,000, respectively.
Philippine economic growth is higher and inflation is lower, but Chile is not a “basket case.” Out of that 18 million, perhaps 10 percent of them feel economic hardship and are frustrated.
But it only took a few thousand people to throw Chile into complete chaos. Innocent people have died. Almost everyone else has had their lives heavily disrupted when people can’t go to work. Schools are closed. Grocery stores have been looted and burned. People are under martial law with tanks in the streets.
One commentator—Simon Black —described the situation this way: “They might be angry about certain issues, but they know that torching property and killing innocents won’t solve anything. Only a trivial fraction of a percent of the population is acting like cowards—the ones who steal a bunch of flat-screen televisions from the neighborhood electronics store. And they’re delusional enough to believe in their own righteousness—that their actions are justified as payback because of some economic injustice.”
While it may be impressive to see 1 million or 2 million protestors in Hong Kong, did they really believe that nonsense about “one country, two systems” being there to protect their interests and not for the benefit of Beijing?
The protesting youth are complaining about receiving death threats and doxxing (publically revealing personal information), but this is the reality. Over 400 police officers and 100 of their family members had their information exposed. According to South China Morning Post, the Office of the Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data said it had received 557 complaints. Of those, 402 cases (72 percent) involved police officers.
The point is that the system in both Chile and Hong Kong has broken down, and the results are horrible. Here is a silly but accurate example. The only thing that makes a stock exchange viable is active liquidity. The fact that a stockholder can always sell or buy at a price is only part of the equation. There must be active trading.
However, when daily total peso trading volume is 3 billion or 4 billion, we are in a danger zone. The last two initial public offerings were not good. Both came out way below the target price and Axelum Resources Corp. is still trading more than 10 percent below the IPO price. For AllHome Corp., the company spent nearly P700 million to support the offering price. That is not the way it is supposed to happen.
Systems can fail quickly and it can happen anywhere. Take nothing for granted. Be vigilant.
E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Visit my web site at www.mangunonmarkets.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by the COL Financial Group Inc.