Based on the poll surveys, it seems that Vice President Leni Robredo and the other presidentiables are not gaining much ground, if they are making any, on the frontrunner, former Senator Bongbong Marcos. The numbers and ranking of the six prominent aspirants, to wit: BBM, VP Leni Robredo, Mayor Isko Moreno, Senator Manny Pacquiao, Senator Ping Lacson and Ka Leody de Guzman have hardly changed since the surveys were conducted last year.
The most recent survey results of Pulse Asia conducted from February 18 to 23 and released on March 14 showed that Marcos, Jr. has maintained his lead over his closest pursuers, notably VP Leni who has consistently placed a distant second. Among BBM’s leading opponents, VP Leni had the best chance of challenging the top candidate. Unfortunately, her February figure of 15 percent was 1 percent down from her January number, which was 16 percent. This was disappointing to her supporters who expected VP Leni to inch closer to BBM. On the other hand, the support base of BBM did not change between January and February where 60 percent of the respondents preferred him over all the other candidates. Instead of catching up with BBM, VP Leni and company are further lagging behind the leader. BBM continues to break away from the group and is further solidifying his seemingly insurmountable lead.
Surprisingly, BBM made a giant leap in Metro Manila, which has the biggest number of voters in the country. In the Pulse Asia February polls, Marcos gained a 9 percent increase from 57 percent to 66 percent voter preference in the NCR. He is also the top choice among the C, D and E classes, which showed that the negative issues hurled against him such as corruption, lies and dishonesty hardly dented his appeal to the masses. In the past, the NCR had been the bastion of the opposition. As the nation’s capital and seat of political activism, it had been the waterloo of establishment candidates. But not in recent years. Even after he was ousted from office and convicted for plunder, former President Joseph Estrada led in Metro Manila in the 2010 presidential election owing largely to the overwhelming votes he received in the poor and blighted areas in the NCR. When he ran for vice president in 2016, the slum districts delivered massive votes to BBM, thrashing VP Leni by a landslide. President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s “masa” appeal thrust him ahead of his competitors all over Metro Manila, except in Makati City, which supported its favorite son, Jojo Binay. If it’s true that where Metro Manila goes, so goes the nation then VP Leni and the other contenders should do everything to stop BBM from scoring a decisive victory in Metro Manila.
The latest OCTA survey for voter preference likewise showed BBM leading the presidential derby. He copped 55 percent of the votes and led VP Leni by a mile at 15 percent. There is not much difference between the Pulse Asia and OCTA polls. In both, BBM enjoys an overwhelming lead against VP Leni and the rest of the field. BBM’s votes exceed the combined votes of all his adversaries. As I have earlier observed, if this trend continues, we may have the first majority elected president in 2022 after President Ferdinand E. Marcos won handily over the opposition bet, Senator Sergio Osmeña, in 1969.
BBM’s inexorable march to Malacañang is happening 36 years after his father was unceremoniously thrown out of Malacañang as an aftermath of the People Power Revolution in February 1986. It was not long in coming considering that the Marcos family has been a discredited name, which has been written off as a political force except in Ilocos. Unlike Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and Noynoy Aquino who both inherited the worthy names of their illustrious parents, former President Diosdado Macapagal and former President Cory Cojuangco-Aquino, BBM has struggled to dissociate himself from the sins of his father. And the family efforts have borne fruits as they have succeeded to revise the image of the elder Marcos from heel to hero and the horrors of the martial law years into a golden age of renaissance.
Would it still be possible for VP Leni to catch up, if not overtake, BBM in voter surveys? The answer is definitely yes. Voters have fickle minds and their support can shift depending on the development in the political landscape. An influential national leader looked up to by legions of followers may declare his or her support to VP Leni. A powerful local leader may transfer his allegiance to the only woman presidential contender and boost her political stock. An explosive political issue may emerge seriously impairing the chances of the leading contender. Right now, the unpaid estate tax issue against the Marcoses is hounding BBM no end. It’s a bombshell that can wreak political havoc if effectively dropped and detonated. This is a bread-and-butter issue, which affects the majority of the Filipinos. The country is hobbled by a P12-trillion debt contracted to fund the pandemic program. Jeepney and tricycle drivers, food delivery service providers, motor vehicle owners and ordinary commuters could no longer afford the prohibitive cost of fuel. The government could hardly afford the meager cash aid that it promised to extend to the poor. Farmers and fishermen protest against the pump price of diesel and gasoline, which heavily impacts on their costs. Yet the government appears helpless to recover this huge tax liability from the Marcoses. Even the unlettered can easily connect that the collection of the P203 billion tax liability from the Marcoses will bring relief to the suffering Filipinos. As his rival presidential contenders have claimed, settlement of the estate tax by the Marcoses can do a lot for our countrymen. This outstanding estate tax liability smacks right into the corruption charges against the late President Ferdinand Marcos. It has raised relevant questions that can give nightmares to the frontrunner. How did Marcos amass such wealth, which has exposed his heirs to a very substantial estate tax liability? Even if you deduct the interests and penalties charged thereon, the principal tax of P15 billion will go a long way to feed our starving population. Who are now enjoying Marcos’ vast estate? Why have they refused to settle the tax all these years? What will happen to the collectible tax if BBM becomes our next president? Definitely, the unpaid estate tax is an issue that will stick until the end, which the voters will remember when they enter their voting booths. VP Leni should press this issue and collaborate with the other candidates like Mayor Isko, Senator Ping Lacson and Senator Manny Pacquiao who have been haranguing BBM about it on every opportunity they get. Together, they can amplify this issue to the voters and pin down BBM and his family for refusing to pay the tax. Tax evasion is the worst crime one can commit during this time of pandemic. And the offense is aggravated if the offender is seeking the highest elective position in the land. This gives VP Leni and company a window to derail BBM’s train to Malacañang.