The discussion of basic Philippine foreign policy—as demonstrated in the last presidential forum—is simplistically “China or USA.” The differences in opinion and strategy come down to a perverse analysis on which alliance is “better.”
The “friend to all, enemy to none” policy makes for a great “motivational quote” but is as naïve as possible. Further, this kind of policy is more of “Cold War” thinking than for the globalized planet we inhabit.
Geopolitics was easier 30+ years ago. “Good” and “Evil” were clear. Nations were either with the US or the USSR. Standing in the middle was the “Non-Aligned Movement,” initiated by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, to play both “super-powers” off each other for all kinds of goodies.
About one hundred years ago the stage was set for our 21st century. In 1921, with the help of the Far Eastern Bureau of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, the Chinese Communist Party held the First National Congress. In 1922, Soviet Russia, along with Soviet Ukraine, Soviet Belarus, and the Transcaucasian SFSR signed the “Treaty on the Creation of the USSR,” officially merging all four republics to form the Soviet Union as a country.
But from the end of World War II, China was a nobody, not even a bit-player on the world stage. That all changed in 1972 when the United States created the China we see today and the “Unholy Trinity” of geopolitics.
Richard Nixon went to China with Henry Kissinger’s global strategy. All Nixon had to do was publicly embrace Mao Zedong to change the world. The USSR could not tolerate a US-PRC alliance. By 1976 at least 45 Soviet tanks and motor rifle divisions were deployed towards Beijing, thousands of miles from Nato’s frontline in Germany.
On one hand the US is still sick with the “Russophobia” virus and the confrontation in Eastern Europe and Ukraine is a symptom of the disease. Since 1922, demonizing Russia is an easy sell. It is much worse than simply holding a grudge for Stalin not appreciating the US help that saved Russia from Nazi Germany.
In international politics, most crimes are forgivable. Even those perpetrated by the Nazis do not figure in US relations with the Federal Republic of Germany. Nor, as it turns out, does the US hold Ukraine’s collaboration with Hitler against it.
The US cannot handle the immense increase in Russia’s power and influence when in 1991, Russia was a nobody and now can set the global narrative. And the fact that Putin is ex-KGB makes it even more intolerable.
China, on the other hand, is showing itself to often be a clown show politically and economically. Xi Jinping could have been the effective “Emperor of Asia.” But he cannot stop fighting with India. Just when Japan was sliding into neutralism, China absurdly decides it owns the Senkaku Islands and begins a determined attack on all things Japanese.
Likewise, the Chinese actual and attempted takeover of the regional waters has resurrected the long dormant “Quad Alliance” of Australia, India, Japan, and the US. In 2008, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh declared that “India is not part of any so-called contain China effort” when asked about Quad.
As Xi Jinping maneuvers to keep control of China with a third term at the CCP National Congress in October, the economy gets more fragile every day. Biden cannot take Xi down, but pork prices might. While Biden pushes for war over Ukraine, Putin holds all the cards. The Russian economy can survive sanctions. Germany freezes this coming winter without Russian natural gas.
Back in Washington D.C., Biden has a net approval rating of minus 12 and 64 percent of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction. On November 8, the US elects all their congressional representatives and one-third of their Senate. 2022 is going to be interesting for “The Unholy Trinity.”