Conducting a survey to determine voters’ opinion, preference or attitude regarding particular candidates, parties or platform of government has been a fixture in our electoral process. No election has taken place without any pre-election polls being undertaken to gauge the electors’ sentiments and guide political campaigns to achieve victory in the election. By far, polling is a reliable tool to obtain both qualitative and quantitative data, which capture public opinion from a random sample of the population.
The results of the poll help the candidate and his campaign staff to craft their campaign strategy based on the polees’ knowledge, perception and opinion of the candidates. Campaign strategists can focus on issues and programs that appeal most to voters. Political advertisements can be channeled on matters favorable to the candidates, which have not gained traction with the public. Polls invariably help in crafting pithy slogans and messages that can catch fire among the viewers and the public. These make polling an indispensable component in running a successful political campaign.
Polling is not a one-time exercise. After the initial poll, which provides the baseline data, tracking polls are regularly conducted which run up until the election day. These polls monitor the candidates’ standing at the poll and help determine the candidates’ SWOT. Thus, the candidates can make corrective adjustments to improve their poll ratings and strengthen their appeal to the voters. They can deemphasize issues that hurt their campaign and harp on proposed programs that can boost their chances of winning.
In the past national elections, major pollsters have more or less been accurate in their election forecasts. Pollsters have become more sophisticated in their methods; they have been careful in wording their questions to avoid ambivalence and ensure that the polling sample is representative of the target demographic population to avoid bias. Election polling in this country has come of age. If the proof of the pudding is in the eating, our leading pollsters like SWS, Pulse Asia and other reputable outfits have become a reliable partner in producing a credible electoral process.
The next pre-election survey, either by Pulse Asia or SWS, bears watching. Hopefully, it will cover the period after November 15, 2021, the last day for filing of substitution and withdrawal of candidates for the May 9, 2022 elections. Pollsters should now include Bong Go, together with Ping Lacson, Bongbong Marcos, Isko Moreno, Manny Pacquiao, and Leni Robredo, who are considered the leading presidentiables out of 8-dozen candidates. The latest survey for the presidential contest conducted by SWS for the period October 20 to 23 showed Bongbong Marcos leading the way with 47 percent of the votes. The rest of the candidates obtained the following votes: Robredo, 18 percent; Isko Moreno, 13 percent; Manny Pacquiao, 9 percent; Ping Lacson, 5 percent and Bato de la Rosa 5 percent. Three percent of those surveyed were undecided and expressed no preference at all. It’s likely that another survey, although not yet released, was already held after the period of substitution and withdrawal of candidates for the presidency was completed. It will be most interesting to find out the results of that poll. Definitely, with the entry of Bong Go, the withdrawal of Bato de la Rosa and with Mayor Sara running in tandem with Bongbong Marcos, the numbers from the last SWS survey will have to change. The changing configurations and new alignments will alter the equation with some numbers moving favorably or adversely against some candidates. Added to this would be the recent attacks leveled by President Duterte against BBM, which many did not expect. As the survey frontrunner, BBM is drawing the flak from all sectors. Getting a negative drug test result will not resolve all his current woes. He needs the best, and definitely the most expensive, legal mind to handle the disqualification cases lodged against him. He may eventually overcome the cases but it will distract him from his campaign while his opponents are busy criss-crossing the country. Moreno, Lacson and Go have inundated our TV screens with their campaign ads hoping to catch up with the leading candidates and score better in the next survey. My sense is that BBM’s number will decrease but even if he loses 15 points, he will still remain on top of the field with over 30 percent of the votes. VP Leni should gain at least 5 points to keep her within striking distance of BBM. As the perceived “real” opposition and antithesis to the Marcos-Duterte dynasty, disgruntled elements of our society may rally behind her banner now that the lines are clearly drawn. Mayor Isko, as my friend has keenly observed, has not gained traction lately. His message should now graduate from his introductory “Ako si Isko” to a mature and action-oriented leader worthy of our trust to improve his numbers. Pacman and Lacson have a lot of catching up to do but they have the skills and talents, and the resources in the case of Pacman, to be able to keep pace. The big question is how many votes will the newcomer Bong Go get on his first salvo at the polls? And where will he get them? Since politics is a zero-sum game, Go’s gain will be another man’s or woman’s loss. Go’s absence in the early polls has benefited BBM. Now that Go has joined the race, Duterte’s loyalists will just go back to Go. Mayor Sara during the inauguration of the BBM-Sara Duterte-Carpio’s campaign HQs in Davao had appealed to her constituents to “protect” Marcos. But can Mayor Sara prevent the Duterte’s faithful from deserting BBM and trooping to Go? Whose command shall be followed? Some Mindanao voters who were inclined to vote for Go but voted for another Mindanawon, Pacman, will revert to Go. Thus, unless Pacman picks up votes elsewhere, his number from the last survey may suffer.
The next poll survey of the presidentiables will set the trend and firm up the current candidates’ standing until the end of the year. Candidates will need to spend real money when the election period begins in February. The coming Christmas Season is the time when big donors decide where their checkbooks will go and the latest survey may serve as their gauge to select their bet. However, the survey is not foolproof. Even George Horace Gallup who founded the Gallup Poll in 1935, the most successful statistical method of public polling, had committed a colossal blunder when he wrongly predicted that Gov. Thomas Dewey would defeat President Harry Truman in the 1948 US presidential contest. The Chicago Daily Tribune even printed it as its banner headline on November 3, 1948. Right or wrong, pollsters are here to stay. If you disagree, let’s ask SWS or Pulse Asia to do a survey.