America has a new president with former VP Joe Biden securing the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. And America being what it is to the rest of the world, the leadership change will affect the whole world. More so in the Philippines, as we are historically, politically, culturally and economically connected to the United States. A Biden presidency will have an impact on many aspects of our lives. Even in our climate change, transport and mobility policies. How so?
The Democrats, more than the Republicans, made climate change a major concern, with a staggering 78 percent of this party committing to it as a national priority. In contrast, the Republican Party threw out most of the environmental protection regulations, including relaxing limits on methane and carbon emissions. With both their houses of Congress seemingly in the hands of the Democrats, such progressive agenda on climate change will definitely be prioritized and fast tracked. Moreover, the US is expected to rejoin global climate change talks, most especially the 2015 Paris Agreement. Policies on alternative energy to include “clean transit and transport will be pushed more than oil and gas.” It will come as no surprise if we see the passage of a zero emission economy year target in this US Democrat-led leadership.
Given this scenario, such a move will send not ripples but shockwaves to our shores. We will expect to see alternative energy, non-fossil fuel and low carbon transport as part of any bilateral discussions between the United States and the Philippines. Trade agreements will push for lower tariffs on these products. Given the fact that the price of clean vehicles is expected to go down when their use is being encouraged in the largest vehicle market that is the US, pass-on costs of these imported vehicles in our country will make it more affordable to Filipino consumers. And low carbon vehicles will not come from the US alone. If the US market for such vehicles will grow, then auto manufacturers from other countries—such as Japan and Korea—will adjust accordingly. The effect on us will be the same, as these car-producing countries will also push for their products in the Philippines. What we will expect then in the next few years is a local market where electric vehicle offerings and EV ecosystem will be aggressively pushed and prices going down. We will also expect this push for change of policy from the foreign institutions we deal with, such as the World Bank, ADB, JICA, KOICA and others. Recommendations on transport policies from these institutions, coupled with the financial assistance or relaxed loan terms, will focus on transport systems that are more sustainable.
On the other hand, there is also that possibility, being the Third World country that we are, that we become the dumping ground of unwanted fossil fuel vehicles, even by these producer countries that will now be espousing low carbon vehicles. This is understandable, as they will need to unload and maximize the opportunities in all remaining global markets for this sunset transport variant. And costs of these vehicles will be very affordable, therefore temptingly attractive. But low-priced as they are, we must not fall for this situation, as long-term effects of fuel fossils on our health and environmental system will definitely negate the gains made from lower fuel costs.
Hence, our transport laws must follow suit. Currently, proposed legislations on low carbon and EV usage and ecosystem are hibernating in both houses of Congress. This needs to be fast tracked and attuned with the global push. A Biden presidency will have this effect on us, which is a welcome one. Especially so for a country that is, whether we admit it or not, still tied up in some shape or form with the United States. But more so because, no matter what we say, any push on climate change will greatly benefit us, a country that stands to be devastated by a major disaster if such climate change is not prevented.
Thomas “Tim” Orbos was formerly with the DOTr and the MMDA. He has completed his graduate studies at the McCourt School of Public Policy of Georgetown University and is an alumnus of the MIT Sloan School of Management. He can be reached via e-mail at thomas_orbos@sloan.mit.edu
2 comments
Good Post!
Thanks for this article !