Considering the fact that I write four pieces published
every week, I am starting to worry what might be my subject matter six months from now. I think I was able to pound out about three columns during the last “pandemic”—the first “SARS’ in 2003. As I wrote recently, Covid has been a blessing in disguise for politicians and pundits.
In October 2019 the title here was “PHL economy: Pushing Forward.” I quoted an in-depth study of the economy from the Oxford Business Group. “With strong economic growth, an expanding population, and an increasingly sophisticated internal market, the Philippines is one of Asia-Pacific’s brightest investment opportunities.” File that under “things happen.”
Also last year, at this time I wrote that “we are witnessing a near-global situation of a breakdown of trust in government.” As they say, that escalated quickly. Now, few people trust their government except, apparently, in the Philippines.
My column on September 26, 2019 was 2020: Be Prepared For Anything. “The period of Political Chaos began in October 2015. The period of Economic Chaos will begin in January 2020. The economic chaos is just beginning. Do not be surprised by the bizarre economic news that will soon fill the headlines.”
We have been programmed to believe that we are constantly walking blindly into the future. Governments have always wanted the people to think of “government” like a parent that the child must rely on to safely cross the street. That is why the powers-that-be always try to keep vital information to themselves. But that is no longer possible in the age of easily accessible information.
For example: The disputes in the South China Sea are about oil and protecting the livelihoods of “poor” local fishermen. While fossil fuel is important, it is equally about fresh fish.
China is not only the world’s biggest seafood exporter, the population accounts for more than 30 percent of all global fish consumption. China’s 15,000 strong sea-going fishing fleet accounts for more than 50 percent of all squid caught in international waters. Part of that fleet travels 17,000 kilometers to fish the waters of South America. The government must financially subsidize that fish catch to be anywhere near economically viable.
Now we read (New York Times): “China’s campaign to encourage mealtime thrift has been a cheerful affair, with soldiers, factory workers and schoolchildren shown polishing their plates clean of food.” Any chance that the Chinese government knows the nation is potentially facing a food shortage?
I said on June 3, “Get prepared for the largest PSEi rally in history.” But two weeks ago: “How will you know when to buy? Watch the volume. Until then, take a nap like the PSE is doing.” It now appears the local stock market is slowly waking up.
There are three factors to look for in selecting individual issues. Certain companies will greatly benefit from the economy “reopening.” Jollibee share price is up 56 percent from its May low. Others will go much higher as the government scrambles for new sources of revenue. The Mining Index is up 75 percent from its low closing in March. A select few are now providing products and services particularly geared to consumers in the time of the pandemic and beyond.
You do not need a crystal ball to see what tomorrow may bring. You just have to be aware of what is going on today. Just connect the dots.
E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Visit my web site at www.mangunonmarkets.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by the COL Financial Group Inc.