Winning the future, Covid or not

The projection models on the course of the Covid-19 pandemic have been about as inaccurate as those used for global warming and “famine-from-overpopulation.” But that is the problem with trying to draw conclusions when there are too many variables and oftentimes agenda-driven data interpretation.

Currently, this is what we do know and even here we are using “official” numbers. Globally there have been 21,959,321 closed Covid cases with 928,292 or 4 percent resulting in death. How many of those were from other causes unrelated to the virus itself is impossible to know. Too many countries were paying an extra subsidy to hospitals that recorded deaths from Covid.

Of the 7,226,655 active cases now on the books, 1 percent or 60,501 are listed as “serious or critical.” We can say that the “estimated” total 30 million Covid cases pale in comparison to the global 400 million full-time jobs lost (from the International Labor Organization) due to the lockdowns.

Let’s put it this way. We are not anywhere near the first projected 4 million global deaths and way above the first projected global loss of working hours equivalent to 34 million full-time jobs.

All right. That is enough of the blame game, which will continue for a decade or more. However, there are two scenarios for the next 12 months or so. The first obviously is that life on Earth will “never” be the same, as we knew it. We must adapt to the new normal under the shadow of Covid. The other option is that by this time next year we will be pretty much back to our old ways. The reality will be somewhere in the middle as usually happens.

However, let’s look at a specific example. I will not touch on international tourism because there are too many variables. Do we travel to Thailand with very few past cases but not go to the United States? Maybe. But then again do you really want to get on an airplane with potentially Covid infected Americans who are also deep into the psychosis of “social justice”?

The entertainment industry has been decimated around the world. While motion pictures from Hollywood and Bollywood are international as Netflix, domestic entertainment is dead. This includes live theater performing Shakespeare to the fabulous Ms./Mr. Bobbie pole dancing at your favorite nightclub.

Andrew Lloyd Webber, English composer and impresario of musical theatre, recently said: “We simply have to get our arts sector back open and running. We are at the point of no return.” And that includes all arts, including museums as well as the performing arts. Seventy percent of Americans say they are afraid to go to see a movie. What is the solution?

We have seen a global boom in home delivery of retail goods and especially food. While fast-food chains have seen an overall decline in same store sales, drive-through has increased so much that major companies are now designing and opening new stores with as much as 60 percent less “sit-down” space and double the capacity for drive-through/pick-up service. What happens the first time the tables are full and people do not want to take food home?

As for the private sector, companies that planned for both scenarios will be the big winners. Those that protected and enhanced their core businesses and also augmented their model “pandemic-friendly” services will own 2021.

E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Visit my web site at www.mangunonmarkets.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by the COL Financial Group Inc.


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