The Press/Media and armchair epidemiologists are obsessed with the number of cases of Covid-19. When the data is reported, you have to read to the last paragraph to get the important information.
Armchair professional boxing experts look at the “punches thrown” if the result is close. It does seem obvious since boxing is a sport that is built around trading punches. But more important is the number of “punches landed” and as a percentage of the total punches thrown.
But the most important statistic and the one that usually—but not always—goes to the winner is the “power-shots landed” because those are what hurt the opponent.
The amount of Covid-19 cases is important for two reasons. More cases will obviously lead to more serious symptoms and more deaths. But what was critical at the beginning was that the number of hospitalizations might overwhelm the medical system. But now even with the headlines highlighting “Nearly 20,000,” our health-care facilities are not overly stressed.
Of the total 9,169 isolation beds marked for Covid-19 patients, 63 percent are still available. About the same percentage of Intensive Care Unit beds are not being used, and 80 percent of the available mechanical ventilators are thankfully sitting idle.
Now we move to the “power-shots landed” or deaths from Covid-19. Assuming 1,000 deaths and all occurring in the National Capital Region with a population of 10 million—which is much too low—that means a population death rate of 0.01 percent. While the percentage of deaths based on the number of cases is important, it is an impossible figure unless 100 percent of the population is tested, which will not happen. Yet even based on the 19,000 plus cases, the current fatality rate is 4.93 percent. That is not the best but certainly not the worst. The global Case Fatality Rate (CFR)—the ratio between deaths and confirmed cases—is 6 percent.
As we have written, Covid-19 is extremely dangerous to the elderly and particularly those who have hypertension, diabetes, heart disease or other serious health conditions. Sweden has been in the news for its high CFR. However, of the 4,542 deaths, 96 percent were 60 years old and above. The headline reads, “In Brazil, Covid-19 hitting young people harder.” But that is false as 69 percent were aged 60 or older, while only 13.6 percent of Brazil’s population is 60 or older.
In the Philippines, 68 percent of the Covid-19 deaths were elderly in spite of the fact that only 10 percent of the NCR population is in that age group. Considering then a relatively low total numbers of deaths and CFR, the ECQ may have been very successful.
While it might have been more sensible to confine only the elderly, look at living conditions in the Philippines. We have a huge number of households with three and even four generations under one roof, particularly in the lower economic classes, unlike in the West.
One noticeable result of the ECQ may be that we did not have any major outbreaks in the informal settlers’ areas, which can hold thousands of residents with a very large number of elderly. While we may have been able to keep these elderly folks quarantined, it would have been the children and grandchildren that could have infected them.