One of the problems with Western thinking is that it is linear, meaning, it follows the belief that the world moves in a relatively straight line. One of the benefits of this type of view is the strong belief that there are always greener pastures on the other side of the mountain, and that the world is limitless if you just keep moving forward.
The West thinks, to put it simplistically, that there is birth, life, death, and afterlife, basically a straight line. In Eastern thinking—Hinduism and Buddhism—there is a circle of life and circles are never-ending. Further, that “circle” creates a repeating cycle.
In October 2015, the global political cycle changed, leading to a period of “political chaos.” We think of chaos as being negative, which it can be. But it is a period of disorder and general confusion because it is a period of change.
The following year (2016) gave the world the Brexit vote as well as the elections of Rodrigo Duterte and Donald J. Trump. But both Brazil and South Korea impeached and removed their sitting presidents. A major coup attempt in Turkey failed but also cemented President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s authoritarian government. Taiwan elected Tsai Ing-wen as its first female president, marking the return to power of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party.
Twenty-seventeen carried on the cycle. Prince Mohammad bin Salman took power and basically upended Saudi Arabia’s political elite. Emmanuel Macron’s election in France was called a “Political Earthquake.” Spain’s northeastern Catalonia region held a referendum for independence, deemed illegal by the central government, and threatening its unification with Castile Spain going back 500 years.
The major historical cycle going back to ancient Rome calls for “economic chaos” after the political cycle. This began in January 2020.
It is important to understand these cycles. While these are global cycles, they do not affect every nation or economy the same way. It is not a zero-sum game where a “loser” offsets a “winner.” While again simplistic, Duterte has the support of a large majority of the Philippine electorate, while Trump has never managed to get his approval rating above 50 percent. The vote in Great Britain to leave the European Union was extremely close, although well within any sort of “margin of error.”
It is critical to know that whatever cosmic forces are at work, the “events” support the cycle, not the other way around. Who in their right mind would have predicted only a week ago that the Covid-19 pandemic would be thrown off the global headlines? Just as there was a flicker of light seen at the end of the economic tunnel in the US, all hell broke loose. And between Covid-19 and US mass protests is the escalation of the “Cold War” between China and US, which will exacerbate global economic problems.
Unfortunately, do not think for a moment that the economic chaos has peaked. It is going to get even more intense, if not on the front-page at least behind the scenes. France and Germany are going to an “economic war” as we speak.
French President Emmanuel Macron is trying to kill Germany’s automobile production by pushing new climate change regulations. Further, he announced an €8 billion plan to make France the top producer of “clean vehicles” in Europe. Germany will not “surrender.” More of this chaos is coming in the months to come. Twenty-twenty has just begun.
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