Although the Philippines holds the world record for having the longest Christmas season, we don’t do Christmas countdown in June. However, recent developments such as the El Niño and outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF) in other countries could have an impact on the way we celebrate Christmas 2019, particularly the much-anticipated Noche Buena meal.
Noche Buena is Spanish for “good night,” but in the only Catholic country in Asia, Noche Buena is steeped in cultural and religious significance. For Filipinos, Noche Buena means the feast before Christmas day. More specifically, it is the meal eaten after hearing the midnight mass to welcome Christmas Day.
In fact, there’s a lively Christmas song —“Noche Buena [Kay Sigla ng Gabi]” —about the big dinner that Filipino families look forward to on Christmas Eve. The song talks about the feast partaken by families, which include traditional dishes like tinola, lechon (roast pig), bread and cheese.
Sadly, the scene described in the song is not the reality for many poor families in the Philippines, particularly for the bottom 30-percent income households. Not many families can afford to buy lechon to feast on even on Christmas. And the cost of making chicken dishes, like tinola, could go up in the coming months given the high cost of animal feeds.
El Niño and outbreaks of ASF fever in other countries could make it challenging for local traders to ensure affordable food, particularly during the holidays. The dry spell, for one, destroyed corn crops and caused a shortfall in the supply of yellow corn—a main ingredient for making animal feeds. Consumers usually bear the brunt of this development because producers have no choice but to pass on the additional cost.
Apart from the high cost of animal feeds, the reduction in the output of growers in previous months helped raise the farm-gate prices of dressed chicken. This could result in more expensive poultry in the coming months, particularly in December when demand shoots up due to the release of bonuses and 13th month pay. The October-to-December period is usually the time when Filipino employees step up their purchases of consumer items, particularly food products.
Also, while the latest official data showed that the country’s pork inventory is up by nearly a fifth, the outbreak of AFS fever in China’s hog farms have made markets jittery. These fears have forced even Manila to impose limits on imports to ensure that the fatal hog disease will not enter the country and cripple the P200-billion domestic hog industry. Unfortunately, more stringent trade rules are threatening to make local pork prices more expensive.
The decision to disallow meat traders from purchasing pork from countries contiguous to areas where ASF outbreaks were declared could also hit small processors and sellers of cooked food items like grilled pork belly or liempo. These small processors do not have the capability to import and they rely on traders who can pay for the necessary fees (tariffs, shipping cost). They cannot buy from raisers because they require special pork cuts.
Food items usually become more expensive when the holidays roll around. However, the government must see to it that price hikes do not spiral out of control because of local and international developments. This is because traders can always make use of these events to take advantage of hapless consumers, particularly the bottom 30-percent income households that spend 70 percent of their pay for food (see, “Bottom 30% expenses swell on costlier food,” in the BusinessMirror, June 25, 2019).
Ensuring stable food prices especially during the holidays is something that poor Filipinos will surely appreciate. We hope that the Duterte administration will make good on its promise to make food prices affordable and accessible. That’s a good gift that 105 million Filipinos can truly enjoy this coming Christmas.