Don’t look now, but some meaningful discussion might ring out at the Asean Regional Forum (ARF). Little more than posturing usually happens at ARF, the Asean’s annual security meeting among its foreign ministers and those of America, Australia, Canada, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, North and South Korea, Russia and the European Union. But it just might.
What may prod the unexpected to happen, ironically, are some aggressive moves by the US, which normally would spur not dialogue and compromise, but even tougher tit for tat.
After all, why should Moscow be in a talking mood after Washington just fired a new volley of sanctions over alleged Russian meddling in the US elections last November? And Beijing never likes negotiating under duress, as it may with the Americans probing supposedly unfair Chinese trade practices.
Plus even more sanctions, this time from the UN against North Korea and companies elsewhere—mostly in China—doing business with Pyongyang. And there’s that US carrier battle group near the Korean Peninsula, plus antimissile batteries on a Seoul golf course, ready for any wayward swings of Pyongyang’s clubs.
Where talk isn’t cheap
Now, diplomatic talk isn’t cheap, with governments setting conditions before they even speak a word. Thus, Washington has demanded that Pyongyang stop testing missiles before they start talking.
North Korea’s envoy to India recently offered talks, but sans pre-conditions. In Manila, however, after the UN sanctions, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi allowed that the trade restrictions were an appropriate response to North Korean missile launches. He then urged Pyongyang to cease rocketry and begin diplomacy; so did US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.
Beijing, too, had set conditions for negotiations, particularly on the Code of Conduct (COC) within disputed waters, which is supposed to replace the current nonbinding Declaration on Conduct of 2002 with Asean. Chinese demands were even more stringent, though largely unspoken.
Before finally agreeing to the framework for COC talks, China waited till the Philippines ended its hostility and, far more important, halted the implementation of its Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (Edca) with Washington. With US forces no longer garrisoning the archipelago and using its bases under the 2014 Edca, China agreed to the framework for talks on the Code.
Another key factor was the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) construction of military-capable facilities on reclaimed islands in the disputed Spratlys. Now, it is to the PLA’s advantage to negotiate restrictions on future defense buildups in the South China Sea.
As for Russia, the latest exchange of sanctions with America, including the forced reduction of US diplomatic officials and staff to the same number as their Russian counterparts in the US, countered somewhat the impression that Moscow was being forced to the bargaining table by Washington’s pressure.
Tillerson said that the US would respond on September 1 to Moscow’s expulsion of American diplomats. But America’s foreign affairs chief also said Russia showed “some willingness” to discuss Ukraine, where Moscow’s 2014 takeover of the Crimean Peninsula and support for pro-Russia separatists, including the alleged infiltration of Russian troops, led to the mass of Western sanctions against the regime of President Vladimir Putin.
In all these instances, the road ahead forks, one way leading to more confrontation and no official talking, and the other toward less discord and some open dialogue. There will be voices at home, abroad and in media screaming, some “Fight!” and some “Talk!” And with so much flag waving, air punching and even saber rattling going nowhere, most powers, if not all, might just be in the mood to talk and listen.
The pluses of parley
SO, what was supposed to be a forum for much posturing, but little substantive discussion, may actually spawn many words of diplomatic significance, if not impact.
In the most urgent issue for East Asia, North Korea was served notice by America and China to desist from more rocket launches, and resume talks. And the UN is getting more sanctions in place, banning exports thought to earn about $1 billion in precious hard currency.
In a rare exchange between North and South Korean foreign ministers at the Asean meeting, Pyongyang’s man rejected the offer of talks from Seoul’s woman. But, at least, they actually talked.
So did Tillerson and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, with the former stressing that, despite their nations’ differences over Ukraine and other issues, they still had major security concerns to talk about.
As for Asean, its much-debated communiqué got delayed a bit over a tug of words on North Korea’s missiles and China’s island-building and military-capable facilities in disputed waters. By latest report, some tough language, pushed by Vietnam, did get into the joint statement.
For sure, the words in Manila won’t please all who hear or read them. But words disdained are always far better than wounds sustained.