A young man from a fairly wealthy New York family ventured on a “bird-watching” expedition to Venezuela in 1896. And William Henry Phelps would later become a famous ornithologist and businessman in Venezuela.
Through his efforts, the forerunner of the “Caracas Country Club” was founded in 1918 as a recreational retreat for foreign oilmen. Still, today waiters serve guests grilled lobster at tables overlooking the clubhouse mansion and swimming pools.
Twice—in 2006 and 2010—the government wanted to close the club to build housing on the golf course. But being the largest green area in Caracas, it is considered the city’s “plant lung”. At least that was the justification given to the poor for retaining the property as is.
In 2010 the New York Times published a story that the club’s days were numbered, as “the club stands for so much of what Mr. Chavez is against”. But Venezuelan writer Vanessa Neumann—whose grandfather was a major industrialist—perfectly sums up the way the world actually works.
“You see the government apparatchiks paying private homage to the oligarchy they publicly ridicule, and vice versa. The former out of a desire to belong, the latter out of a desire to survive.”
The members of the club—as of similar establishments around the globe—have the gold and the government has guns. They both need each other until they don’t. Why would these people at the top rungs of society and wealth sit by as Venezuela falls into chaos? They too depend on a functioning state for their well-being.
If some turn against the government—what scholars call an “elite fracture”—and do it too soon, they will be alone, facing terrible consequences. But if they stay loyal to a failing government too long, they risk going down with it.
The election of French President Emmanuel Macron is being heralded as a victory against the wave of “populism”. No matter what the two political parties that have governed France for decades did not even make to the second ballot.
The majority of the “elite” stay quiet until they see which way the political winds are blowing and those winds blow in the direction that the people decide. We have seen that happen in the Philippines, as well as in Thailand, Indonesia and elsewhere.
We think that wealth brings power but that is true only to the extent that wealth is used to gain power from the genuine source—government. When a government falls, it can regain its power if it can get enough goons and guns. Venezuela is an example of that. Wealth, once lost, is more difficult to regain.
The difference is that the “elite” can, at any time, switch sides to “the people” against “the government” —the elite fracture. That is why we hear government constantly reminding the elite to “Keep calm and don’t worry”. The government cannot show any weakness. Further, to help keep the elite on its side, we have things in the West like booming stock markets.
While 2016 and 2017 have been filled with a growing “war” with government, forcing it to constantly retreat and then dig in, eventually—likely in 2018—government’s back will be against the wall. As I said to my friend, retired Philippine Navy Comm. Rex Robles, if you liked 2017, you are going to love 2018. The elite fracture may be on its way. Then things will get even more interesting…and dangerous.
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