Once a relative cipher when it came to politics, Donald Trump surprised the world last week after he crushed Hillary Clinton at the US presidential polls. His campaign promise to “make America great again” convinced nearly 50 percent of the American electorate that he can deliver on his pledge. And they made him the 45th president of the United States of America.
Political observers around the world didn’t see Trump getting elected on a platform of resentment. When he made xenophobic and nationalistic policies the centerpiece of his campaign, like closing America’s borders to illegal immigrants, adopting economic protectionism and pursuing an uncompromising foreign policy, pundits saw these as Trump’s Waterloo. But they were all wrong. Not one of them had the slightest hunch that popular hostility to liberal immigration and free- trade policies that took jobs away from the US ran deep among a critical mass of American voters.
Like everybody else around the world, Filipinos also have huge concerns about what Trump’s election will mean for the country. What can we expect from the incoming administration of President Donald Trump? Will the mercurial President Trump be able to work closely with the equally mercurial President Duterte? Since both of them are populist and strong nationalists, could these be their possible points of convergence?
Having President Trump at the Oval Office could have mixed implications for the Philippines. Since his administration will be more inward looking, he will give more attention to America’s domestic affairs over dealings with other countries. This could be good for us, given Duterte’s avowed independent foreign policy and pivot to China initiative. And, unlike Obama, Trump does not seem to have a significant concern about human-rights issues. In other words, he won’t give a hoot about Duterte’s war on drugs. If Trump makes it his policy to oblige allies to pay for US military presence or else he withdraws it, then the more Duterte will like him.
However, if the Trump administration will adopt protectionist policies, the Philippines is seen experiencing zero growth in industries where US companies have significant investments. Trump’s America First Policy will close the US economy from foreign competitors and prevent US companies from moving their factories to developing countries, like the Philippines, with cheaper labor. There’s also the possibility that we may kiss our bullish business-process outsourcing (BPO) industry goodbye if Trump will ask these companies to go back to the US. This is an economic threat we can’t take lightly because the BPO industry employs over a million Filipinos and generates $22 billion in annual revenues.
If Trump decides to tax remittances sent by immigrants to their home countries, going by his campaign rhetoric, this will affect the local economy. Reports say there are 3.5 million Filipinos in America right now, and about 360,000 of them are residing there as illegal immigrants. Collectively, US-based Filipinos remit more than $9 billion annually, which accounts for about 3.5 percent of the country’s GDP.
There are interesting things waiting to unfold in the US as Trump, a Republican, is set to wear the hat of the most powerful person in the world. Along with the change in the party in power comes the change in US policies and priorities. If President Trump disengages from the world, we can’t figure out what will storm through the breach. Unfortunately, we can’t do anything but wait and see.