If you want to understand the dynamics of what is happening now around the world, here is what you can do. Fill a pan with some water, put it on the stove with high heat and watch for about 15 minutes. You will see a phase transition of the water from liquid to gas.
The political cycle is changing as the economic cycle also changes, and it is never a calm evolution.
For example, 300 years ago, King Philip V of Spain applied the Nueva Planta decrees to Catalonia, making that area subject to the laws of the Crown of Castile, abolishing the
Principality of Catalonia. A few days ago, 80,000 people of the region marched for a return to independence.
Protesters of the election of Donald Trump as president are doing what Americans have become good at in the last few years. They are “peacefully” objecting to the US election results by fighting with law enforcement, looting stores, damaging property, and with some calling for Trump’s assassination. This is all “business as usual” for the cycle change.
The political pundits are suddenly all talking about a “populist revolt” the same way one might look at that pan of hot water and exclaim that the water has suddenly and unexplainably become chaotic. But the US election results are not the cause of the unrest, but that the unrest of the cycle change is the cause of the election results. The genuine significance of the US election or Trump’s victory is that the event is another and important confirmation of the political-cycle transformation.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo took office in 2014 as the first nonmilitary leader of the country. December 2015 saw Liberal Party Justine Trudeau take power from the Conservative Party, after 10 years, in a complete reversal of political ideology. Taiwan’s Kuomintang party lost its control of the legislature for the first time in history.
The Philippines elected a president without any national office experience in May 2016. The UK voted to leave the EU in June by a strong majority. In August, even with a flawed voter-information system, 61 percent of Thailand’s ballots approved a new constitution giving even more political power to the military.
After the existing ruling party was found to have cheated, Austria’s far-right “populist” party is leading the polls. Bulgaria has just elected—with 58 percent of the vote—the US- trained former head of Bulgaria’s Air Force, a complete political newcomer who wants closer ties with Russia.
Why are these events important? Tracking the political cycle is the economic cycle. As the pundits and experts are saying around the globe, “How could this be happening?” in regard to the political changes, so, too, will they say the same thing about the economic events that will unfold in the next two years.
As you read the headlines that have repeatedly used the word “shocked” to describe these elections, wait until the economic cycle changes. If you recognize and accept the cycles, then you will be no more surprised by these changes than with an eclipse of the sun. And as with the change from the dry to wet season, you can be prepared. Prepare for the economic cycle change. It is coming, and it will not paint a pretty picture.
E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Visit my web site at www.mangunonmarkets.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by the COL Financial Group Inc.