INDIA’S rice export ban, Vietnam’s move to halve its exports, typhoons like Egay, and the scuttling of the Ukraine grain deal are “the quadruple whammy” that will hurt the Philippines, the world’s second and sixth biggest rice and wheat importer, said Deputy Speaker Ralph Recto on Tuesday.
Recto said the government should look into experts’ suggestions to address “the quadruple whammy.”
“Ito ang suntok sa sikmura na dapat paghandaan nating lahat [This is the punch in the stomach that we should all prepare for]. These developments are the sound of empty pots clanging,” Recto said in a statement.
President Marcos’s warning that rice prices could go up is the refreshing honesty of telling the truth to the people that should spur a whole-of-nation action on how to meet the crisis ahead, he added.
Among the measures experts are suggesting is ramping up production “of rice and substitute crops” in areas like Mindanao, which are not on the usual typhoon path, Recto said.
Recto said flooding caused by typhoons Egay and Falcon would impact rice and corn supplies as the three affected regions—Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, and Central Luzon—account for 44 percent of national rice production and 79 percent of corn.
“These are agricultural powerhouses that not only serve as our grain granaries but are also major suppliers of poultry, pork, and other livestock,” he said.
However, the easy solution of importation when local production dips “is not as straightforward anymore due to convulsions in the world market.”
“It is no longer easy to order rice. The only thing other countries give up is their surplus production. They prioritize local demand. And this is where grain nationalism comes in. Because if there is no rice on the table, people will rise up in protest,” he said.
India, the number one rice exporter with a 40-percent world market share, has imposed a ban on the export of non-Basmati rice.
Ripple effect
“You don’t need a Nobel to sagely predict that it will have a ripple effect on all grain prices considering the big hole it will cause,” Recto said.
But what could hit us “directly and painfully,” Recto warned, is Vietnam’s decision to slash its rice exports a year to 4 million tons by 2030 from 7.1 million tons in 2022.
The Philippines, he said, sourced 2.5 million metric tons, or 85 percent, of its rice imports from Vietnam in 2021; “that’s why the painful joke is that Vietnam is said to be the biggest rice-producing province in the Philippines.”
But, Recto added, “the flipside is, can we leverage our being the No. 1 customer into a favored recipient status? Do we have that diplomatic gravitas?”
Even the failure to free embargoed Ukraine wheat, after Russia bombed grain stores in Ukraine and pulled out of a deal that would have allowed safe passage of food exports through the Black Sea, “will shrink Pinoy pan de sal sizes while boosting its price.”
“What most people don’t know is that we are not only the champion rice importer, but we are also the sixth placer in importing wheat because noodles are our national food,” Recto said.
Recto, a former director general of the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda), said the country is about 81 percent rice-self-sufficient.
One “interesting data” that Recto discovered is the jump in rice utilization.
“If you look at 2022 rice utilization data, it was 135 kilos per capita for that year, up from 118 kilos per Pinoy prepandemic. What is the reason for this?” he wondered aloud.
‘Department of Rice Importation’?
Meanwhile, Gabriela Rep. Arlene D. Brosas criticized the proposed government-to-government importation of rice.
In a statement, Brosas highlighted the need to repeal RA 11203, or the Rice Liberalization Law, and prioritize strengthening the Philippine rice industry instead.
“While we acknowledge the need to address the current shortage of rice stocks, we believe that the solution lies in supporting our local farmers and improving our domestic rice production. The President must be reminded that he is running the Department of Agriculture and not the Department of Rice Importation,” Brosas stated.
“The increasing prices of rice and dwindling stocks are proof that the Rice Liberalization Law was never the solution in the first place as it allowed the influx of imported rice and consequently depressed the farm gate prices of palay,” she added.
Brosas is the author of House Bill 405 or the Rice Industry Development Act (RIDA), which proposes a massive overhaul of the rice industry, with the government paving the way with adequate public investment, support, mechanisms, and infrastructure.
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