For the past six months or so, we had been through a lot of ordeals. From being locked down in our homes to the economic downturn of our country and the rise in poverty and, worse, the rising cases and deaths due to Covid-19.
In March of this year, we were hoping that a vaccine will be discovered towards the end of the year. But it seems that this is still far-out since there was no approved vaccine yet in the market as of this time. Many countries in the world are spending time and money to come up with the right vaccines but there’s no official release of any vaccine in sight as of this time.
The World Health Organization lists 26 Covid-19 vaccines currently in human trials, with 12 of them in Phase-2 trials and six in Phase 3. But it will still take months to distribute these vaccines. (www.nature.com, August 2, 2020: “How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond.”)
Given the above scenario, in my assessment (I hope I’m wrong), December is not yet a month for face-to-face big gatherings for Christmas parties. We are on “ber” months already and even if a vaccine will be made available in November, I am sure that by that month, these vaccines will not be available yet for distribution. Let us try to explore scenarios that are forecasted by some medical researchers.
First scenario: although some people will disagree without the vaccines, I also believe that change of habits can radically change the surge of this virus. Frequent hand washing, mask-wearing, social distancing and strengthening immunity even after strict lockdown can reduce the number of cases.
Given that in December lockdowns will be lifted in the Philippines, to be on the cautious side, we should limit face-to-face gathering to people within the house for Christmas parties. I would not even attend a gathering outside my house with even 10 people or less even if the lockdown is lifted.
We just have to strictly continue to observe the protocols. If the lockdowns are eased, we can go to parks, dine inside restaurants, shop in malls, etc. provided social distancing, mask-wearing, hand washing, etc. are strictly observed.
The second scenario will be the protective capability of our immune system when a vaccine is available or when immunity is developed in a previously-infected person.
Covid-19 is a new virus without precedent. While there are vaccines for polio and measles that last for decades, nothing is known yet how long the protection of a vaccine will or antibodies after being infected will last to continue its protection against this virus. It will take time for researchers to come up with a conclusion and only after a long observation.
There are countries like the United States, those in Europe, Asia and other regions that had lifted lockdowns despite the rising number of cases. Schools in the US opened with children attending classes and workplaces opening with people going to work (although there are still work- from-home cases) and restaurants and parks opening. People in certain countries in these regions don’t even wear masks and observe social distancing anymore.
The advantage they have is they have more mass testing for free coupled with an effective contact tracing and availability of facilities to take care of Covid19 victims. These are rich countries that can afford to provide for their citizens.
But for poor and developing countries like the Philippines, without a vaccine, it will be a big challenge to ease a lockdown given the situation we are in right now. The lack of good quarantine facilities, lack of mass testing for free or more affordable, the lack of space in the houses of Filipinos for those with family members required to home-quarantine and the need for social distancing among informal settlers are major deterrents in a complete nationwide lifting of lockdowns.
In the meantime, the best we can do as Filipinos is to observe strict protocols whether at home or work, whether there’s a lockdown or not.
What will the future of our country be? With a virus that has no precedent and with no assurance of an effective and lasting vaccine in the coming months, uncertainty looms ahead. But as an optimist at heart sans “rose-colored glasses” (or without disregarding the negative aspects), I still want to subscribe to the motto—no matter how run-of-the-mill it is—to “hope for the best but prepare for the worst.”
Wilma Miranda is the managing partner of Inventor, Miranda & Associates and CPAs, Board of Director member of KPS Outsourcing Inc. and Treasurer of Negros Outsourcing Service Inc. The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the opinion of these institutions or the BusinessMirror.