Some people can be panicky even to the point of being paranoid. They may have a reason because the 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a real threat not only to the health of the global population but also to the economy.
However, we also need to have a life free from paranoia. I think doing our best by frequent washing of hands and avoiding as much as possible public crowds plus strengthening our resistance is the most rational things we could do. After having done our best, we will leave to God the rest.
There are some people I know who had to cancel their trips to Asian countries like Thailand and Hong Kong until everything is clear and until there are some sense of certainty as to the effect of this virus worldwide. Covering our nose with masks may give us some sense of security but even hands that handle masks can be infected—what will all the door knobs, the handrails, the chairs—that our hands will likely touch.
The breakout started to be detected in December 8, 2019, with the peak of the outbreak in January 20, 2020. Although mortality is small (at 2 percent of the affected people) when compared to the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which is 10 percent, it seems to be spreading faster than SARS.
There were a total of 8,098 to 8,422 affected persons by SARS in a period of eight months while about the same number or 7,783 persons were infected with the disease in just a couple of weeks only by the nCoV, according to Rabo Research.
And unless China or global health experts can find a cure for this epidemic and soon, the economy will likely suffer. The economy rebounded fast after SARS was contained. We’re hoping the nCoV will also be stopped or contained soon to avoid a serious and longer term negative impact on the global economy.
As of now tourist influx, for instance, not only in the Philippines but in other countries, might slow down because the Chinese comprises a big bulk of tourists in many countries including the Philippines (No. 2 after South Korea) with 1,255,258 compared to Korea of 1,587,959 in 2018, according to the Department of Tourism. I cannot find any figure yet as of 2019 but the way we see it, they are still the top tourists in the Philippines after Korea. Tourists from China comprised a significant number visiting Thailand (30 percent) and Australia (15 percent)—the top two countries with Chinese tourists.
If the virus is not contained soon, the global economy is expected to be more severely affected by this virus more than the effect of SARS in the years 2002 to 2003. For one, China is much bigger in terms of economic growth now and thus have a bigger domino effect on the global economy since it deals with more businesses in more countries now than ever before.
And with its growth it has become more vulnerable compared to 17 years ago since it has much higher debt and also had trade concerns with the United States; although partly settled by the Phase 1 trade deal. Its growth had been slowing down for the past years, which might become worse as they are faced with this kind of crisis now, according to a paper by Raphie Hayat titled the “Economic Implications of the Corona Virus.”
According to Macrobond, China’s economy in 2003 only comprised 7.3 percent of the world gross domestic product while today it represents more than 20 percent.
As to the impact to the economy of the Philippines, the country’s finance team do not see the virus having a serious effect on the economy even though it is still reeling from the effects, although minimal, of the Taal volcano eruption.
I was just wondering with all those scares and uncertainties the world is facing because of the outbreak of this virus. Still, many people has still the gall to create false news.
I was in the province and woke up last Friday morning with a message on Facebook Messenger, which is obviously fake news because the figures were quite exaggerated. I verified with those in the know and found out that it was indeed fake news. I have to verify to stop this spreading of fake news. I always do this verification when I know it is too exaggerated and obviously made up so I can refute these messages and stop people from sharing it.
For now, we can do our share in minimizing the harmful effects of this virus outbreak by refuting false messages and nip it in the bud.
We have enough events to scare us. We certainly don’t need those fake news to scare us more.
Wilma Miranda is a Managing Partner of Inventor, Miranda & Associates, CPAs. She is also chairman of the Media Affairs Committee of the Financial Executives of the Philippines and a member of the KPS Outsourcing Inc. Board of Directors. The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the opinion of these institutions.