PHILIPPINE rice imports this year could reach 2.3 million metric tons (MMT), driven by stronger appetite from traders as they anticipate the full liberalization of the industry, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
This would be the second consecutive year that the Philippines would be importing over 2 million metric tons of rice, as purchases from abroad last year were also estimated at 2.3 MMT, according to the USDA.
Prior to 2018, the last time the Philippines imported over 2 MMT of rice was in 2010, when the country suffered a shortage of the staple due to El Niño and typhoons, government data showed.
In the February iteration of its global grain market report, the USDA projected that the rice tariffication bill “would likely keep imports at robust levels.”
The legislation, which would convert to a tariff system the Philippines’ s two-decade-long quantitative restriction on rice imports, would encourage exporters, particularly Vietnam, to further supply Manila with its staple requirement, the USDA added. In fact, due to the rice tariffication bill, the USDA revised upward its import projections for the Philippines this year to 2.3 MMT from its earlier forecast in December of 1.8 MMT.
Despite the revision in import forecast, the USDA maintained its earlier projection on the local milled rice output at 12.15 MMT, slightly lower than the 12.235 MMT estimated production in 2018.
In the same report, the USDA hiked its forecast on the Philippines’s rice consumption and residual requirement this year to 13.65 MMT from 13.5 MMT projected in December. The new forecast is 400,000 MT more than the 13.25 MMT estimated rice utilization in 2018, according to USDA data.
Private traders have already applied to import at least 1.185 MMT of rice under the National Food Authority’s out-quota program, with the majority entering the country this year. The Department of Agriculture is targeting to reach a palay output of about 20 MMT this year, or around 13.08 MMT in milled rice terms at a 65.4-percent milling recovery rate. The country produced 19.1 MMT of palay last year, or equivalent to nearly 12.5 MMT of rice.