Rice output in H1 seen exceeding 8.7 MMT

Paddy production in the first half of 2018 could rise by 1.63 percent to 8.709 million metric tons (MMT), from last year’s record of 8.569 MMT, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

Data from the PSA showed the projected hike in paddy production in the first quarter would offset the anticipated decline in second-quarter output.

In the January-to-March period, PSA data showed paddy production would increase by 5.65 percent to 4.669 MMT, from the previous year’s 4.419 MMT. The projection was based on standing crop.

“Harvest area may expand to 1.19 million hectares, from 1.15 million hectares in 2017, or by 3.85 percent. Yield per hectare may improve to 3.92 metric tons [MT], from 3.85 MT,” the PSA said in its report titled “Rice and Corn Situation Outlook.”

In the April-to-June period, harvest area may contract by 3.89 percent to 910,000 hectares, from the previous year’s 947,000 hectares. Yield per hectare, however, is seen expanding by 1.29 percent to 4.44 MT, from 4.38 MT in the same period last year.

“The farmers’ planting intentions for April to June 2018 will probably be affected by the earlier decision to plant during the fourth quarter of 2017, moving the harvest earlier in the first quarter of 2018 since they are apprehensive of unpredictable weather,” the PSA report read.

“Nevertheless, they expect yield to increase due to anticipation of sufficient water supply from irrigation and sustained distribution of good quality seeds from the government,” it added.

Paddy output in 2017 reached 19.28 MMT, 9.36 percent higher than the 2016 output of 17.36 MMT. The PSA said harvest area expanded to 4.81 million hectares, from 4.56 million hectares. Yield was up by 3.54 percent to 4.01 MT, from 3.87 MT in 2016.

As for corn, the PSA said output in the first semester could increase by 2.25 percent to 3.779 MMT, from last year’s 3.696 MMT. Yellow-corn production could go up by 1.71 percent to 3.003 MMT, while white-corn output could rise by 4.37 percent to 776,000 MT.

“Based on standing crop, probable production in January to March 2018 will be 2.49 MMT, 5.05 percent above the 2.37 MMT output in 2017. Harvest area may be larger from 695,740 hectares in 2017 to 720,960 MT in 2018, or by 3.26 percent,” the PSA report read.

“Possible increases in production are expected in all regions, except the Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos region, Western Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Davao region, and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao,” it added.

Based on farmers’ planting intentions, the PSA said corn output could decline by 2.73 percent to 1.294 MMT in the second quarter, from last year’s 1.33 MMT.

“Farmers are pessimistic to plant due to expectations of unfavorable weather, limited seeds and insufficient soil moisture,” the PSA said.

Corn output last year rose by 9.64 percent to 7.91 MMT, from 7.22 MMT in 2016. The PSA said harvest area increased to 2.55 million hectares from the previous year’s 2.48 million hectares, or by 2.74 percent. Yield improved by 6.72 percent to 3.1 MT, from the previous year’s 2.91 MT.


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