The Philippines’s rice imports this year may expand by nearly 5 percent year-on-year to a record level of 3.1 million metric tons (MMT), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.
In its monthly report, the USDA said it revised upward its rice import forecast for the Philippines due to “large monthly imports from Vietnam,” which is the country’s top supplier of the staple.
The USDA hiked its rice import forecast for the Philippines in 2022 by 100,000 MT from an earlier estimate of 3 MMT. The latest forecast would mean that the country’s rice imports would breach the 3-MMT mark for the first time.
It also projected that the country’s total rice imports next year would remain at 3.1 MMT driven by “continued strong demand for rice from Vietnam.” This would make the Philippines the second-biggest rice importer in the world for 4 consecutive years.
The country’s rice imports last year reached a record high of 2.95 MMT.
“Imports are forecast up due to higher demand from China, Vietnam, and the Philippines,” the USDA said in its monthly global grain situation report published on Wednesday (Philippine time).
The Philippines’s rice imports in the first half expanded by nearly 30 percent year-on-year to 1.887 MMT, driven by the country’s demand for cheaper supply.
The latest data from the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) showed that rice imports in January to June rose by 433,000 MT from 1.454 MMT a year ago.
Rice industry sources said the landed cost of imports is still cheaper than the locally-produced staple, making it more profitable for entities to import rice.
“It’s always about the price. If the landed cost of imported rice plus tariff is cheaper compared to local rice, they will want to import more,” an industry source, who requested anonymity, said.
BPI data showed that Vietnam remained the country’s top rice supplier, accounting for 1.517 MMT, followed by Myanmar with 153,969.28 MT.
BPI data also showed that rice imports from Pakistan, which has been benefiting from lower tariff rates, continued to grow, reaching 111,550.675 MT in end-June. (Related story: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2022/05/28/palace-eo-extends-lower-tariffs-on-pork-and-rice-until-december/)
Rice imports from Thailand reached 95,173.125 MT, while imports from China and India reached 3,591.5 MT and 5,168.385 MT, respectively.
Agriculture officials noted that the country has sufficient rice stocks during the lean months of July to September. However, agriculture officials cautioned that rice imports may have to breach the 2-MMT mark to ensure that the country would have enough rice.
Since the start of implementation of the rice trade liberalization (RTL) law or Republic Act 11203 in early 2019, the country’s annual rice imports have been above 2 MMT, catapulting the Philippines into becoming the second largest buyer of imported rice in the world.
The Philippines’s domestic milled rice output this year could reach a record volume of 12.6 MMT before falling to 12.411 MMT next year. The country’s milled rice production last year reached 12.416 MMT.
“Global rice production is forecast lower this month due to lower average yields for Sri Lanka more than offsetting larger crops for the Philippines and Senegal,” the USDA said.
“Global consumption is projected up, primarily on increases for China, Benin, and the Philippines.”
The Philippines’s total rice consumption this year may expand by almost 6 percent year-on-year to 15.3 MMT and would further grow to 15.5 MMT by next year, according to the USDA.