The Department of Health (DOH) on Tuesday said that 3,800 to 5,300 daily Covid-19 cases might occur across the country in mid-July if mobility continues to increase, compliance to minimum public health standards (MPHS) would be reduced and booster uptake “is maintained at this low level.”
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that this is based on their updated projections from FASSSTER.
“If mobility continues to increase, compliance to MPHS continues to reduce, 20-22 percent reduction, and booster uptake is maintained at this low level, we may see 3,800 to 5,300 daily cases nationally by mid July,” Vergeire told reporters.
FASSSTER was made possible following a partnership with the DOH, Department of Science and Technology-Philippine Council for Health Research and Development, and the Ateneo de Manila University. It aims to provide a user-friendly tool for modeling disease spreads in the Philippines to aid in the DOH’s disease surveillance efforts.
FASSSTER takes a multi-dimensional approach in modeling disease spreads by using localized indices from Philippine health records and by integrating other data sources, including but not limited to disease and event surveillance systems and electronic medical records.
On Monday, the DOH reported a 53 percent increase in Covid-19 cases from June 20 to June 26 as compared to June 13 to June 19 period.
A total of 4,634 Covid-19 cases were logged from June 20 to June 26, an average of 662 cases per day.
“Pinapaalalahanan ang lahat na huwag maging kampante sa banta ng Covid-19 [We are reminding everyone not to be complacent amid the threat of Covid-19],” the DOH said.
17K cases by end of July
The DOH on Tuesday also warned that daily Covid-19 cases nationally could rise to over 17,000 by the end of July if the current compliance of the minimum public health standards will not be improved.
Vergeire bared that based on projections of Australian Tuberculosis Modeling Network (AuTuMN), with the baseline scenario of 21 percent decline in the MPHS since February 14, cases may reach 17,105 everyday by end of July.
However, if the MPHS compliance decreased by 22 percent, the Covid cases may reach 22,187 by end of July.
She noted that as of June 26,848 Covid cases were logged in the country.
For the National Capital Region (NCR), assuming in-school capacity increases by August 2022, cases are estimated to increase starting mid-July with a peak in mid-September, but will remain lower than cases observed during the Omicron peak in January.
“If no new VOC [variant of concern] emerges, cases are estimated to peak at 1,784 cases per day by mid-September,” Vergeire said.
The DOH also clarified further that assuming face-to-face classes increases in capacity by mid-August in NCR and no new variant of concern enters the country, the AuTuMN projections “see the start of a slow increase in cases starting in mid-July and peaking by mid-September which may reach around 1,784 daily cases.”
Meanwhile, Vergeire said that “age-targeted booster administration” in NCR can supplement increased booster rates to heighten the immunity wall of the population against Covid-19 hospitalization.”
“Bagamat projections lamang ito, mabuting tingnan natin bilang gabay upang patuloy lang tayo sa tinatamasa nating unti-unting paglalakbay tungo sa new normal [Although these are just projections, it is better to use it as our guide so that we can continue with our journey going to the new normal],” Vergeire said.
More Omicron subvariant cases detected
Sixty-two more Omicron subvariants BA.5, BA.2.12.1, and BA. 4 cases were detected in the country, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire confirmed on Tuesday.
In a media forum, Vergeire said 50 additional BA.5 cases, 11 BA.2.12.1, and 2 BA. 4 individuals were found positive of the Omicron subvariants.
Of the 50 BA.5 cases, 38 were from Region 6, five from NCR, and seven returning overseas Filipinos (ROFs) who tested positive for the said subvariant.
“One individual is fully vaccinated, one is unvaccinated, while the vaccination status of remaining 48 cases are still being verified,” Vergeire said.
At the moment, Vergeire said, exposure of individuals is still unknown and travel histories are being verified.
“One presented with mild symptoms while the remaining 49 are still being verified,” she added.
Forty-one individuals are now tagged as recovered, 4 are still undergoing isolation, while the outcome of the rest of five patients are being verified.
BA.2.12.1
Vergeire said that of the 11 additional BA.2.12.1 cases detected, seven individuals came from Region 6, and four ROFs.
“The vaccination status as well as the signs and symptoms of the 11 cases are still being verified. At the moment, exposure of individuals is still unknown and travel histories are being verified,” she said.
Ten individuals are now tagged as recovered and one is still undergoing isolation.
BA.4
Two additional cases of BA.4 were detected, wherein one individual is from Region 6, and 1 ROF.
“One individual is fully vaccinated while the vaccination status of the other case is still being verified,” Vergeire said.
At the moment, she said, exposure of individuals is still unknown and travel histories are being verified.
“One individual presented with mild symptoms while the other case is still being verified. Both individuals are now tagged as recovered,” Vergeire said.
Vergeire said that as of June 27, there were a total of 43 cases of BA 2.12, 43 BA.4, and 93 BA.5.