A STEADY increase in vaccination rates and the continuing decline in the number of new Covid-19 cases would make it possible for the country to de-escalate to Alert Level 1, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda).
In a virtual briefing over the weekend, Neda Undersecretary for Planning and Policy Rosemarie G. Edillon said the easing of mobility restriction down to Alert Level 1 and the recent opening of the tourism sector will help the economy recover this year.
The Neda assessment was made before the Metro Manila Council of mayors voted on Monday to recommend extension of Alert Level 2 for Metro Manila until the end of February.
In explaining what it would take to de-escalate the alert levels, Neda’s Edillon had said, in a mix of English and Filipino: “First of all, we hope the cases won’t rise again. Second, if the vaccinations continue to be ramped up, even if the cases rise the hospitals won’t be overwhelmed. So, if this is what will happen, I am sure our alert level will also be de-escalated.”
Edillon told BusinessMirror on Sunday that in order for the country to be placed under Alert Level 1, the current metrics require that the 2-week growth rate in new cases is negative. This means there is a declining trend in new cases.
Further, she said there must also be a low average daily attack rate (ADAR). This means daily cases per 100,000 population, for an average of seven days, should be no more than seven infections as well as low-risk hospital bed utilization or no more than 49 percent.
Edillon said the country’s vaccination rate should also be at least 70 percent and that all establishments must have the safety seal.
The Safety Seal system allows businesses to increase their operating capacity by 10 percentage points if they meet criteria such as having all their employees vaccinated, among others.
“The parameter of hospital bed utilization reflects infection levels from 1 to 2 weeks before; 2-week ADAR plus safety seal would imply the level of compliance to health protocols; (and) 2-week ADAR plus vaccination would be predictive of hospital utilization 1 to 2 weeks forward,” Edillon told BusinessMirror.
Efforts to boost the economy include the recent opening of the country to foreigners. Edillon said while foreign tourists only account for 12 percent of the country’s GDP, this remains significant.
She said foreign tourists ensure that even on lean months, the country’s tourism-related businesses are up and running. This is crucial in their operations as domestic travelers only frequent tourist destinations during specific periods.
While it is important to encourage domestic tourists, having a diverse pool of visitors could ensure that the country’s tourism industry can operate all year round.
“Domestic tourists would travel during very specific periods (Holy Week, school break, Christmas break, other long weekends); and these dates are the same for most Filipinos (except the local holidays). Having foreign tourists could bring in tourists during the ‘down-times’ of domestic tourism,” she told this newspaper.
Social protection
WITH the ill effects of the lockdown imposed to prevent the spread of Covid-19 hampering livelihoods and incomes, Ibon Foundation Inc. believes efforts must be exerted to expand social protection in the country.
Ibon said a universal social protection floor should include not just basic income security but also essential health care and minimum education and nutrition for children.
This is a more holistic move rather than just adopting a Universal Basic Income (UBI), which Ibon said, may not be appropriate for the country at this time given its level of development.
For the UBI to be meaningful it will have to be large and such a large permanent cash transfer will likely have adverse policy consequences. The budget for this will easily run into the hundreds of billions of pesos.
Ibon also said that from a long-term development policy perspective, ensuring universal basic social services including building public sector capacity to provide this and modernizing the economy to create jobs and decent incomes with vibrant agriculture and strong Filipino industry, would be more ideal for the country.
“Given the government’s overly market-oriented approach to social development, this could lead to a decline in public services where the UBI will be seen as the quick fix to development and universal social protection,” Ibon Foundation Executive Director Sonny Africa said.
“Budgets for the public health system, education system, and welfare services will likely suffer and be increasingly turned over to the ‘efficient’ private sector. The end result will be even more emaciated publicly-provided social services,” he added.
Currently, the national government is finalizing the social protection floor (SPF) and the Neda is doing the analysis of the impact of the implementation of such a measure.
Edillon said the thrust of the SPF will be within a “comprehensive framework of social protection (that is) encompassing preventive, promotive, protective and transformative.”
“Assignment of accountability is important. (The) government’s role is significant in both policy and direct provision. But actually, if we are able to implement effectively the preventive, promotive and transformative, the need for government-provided protective measures is reduced,” Edillon said.
Neda earlier explained that an SP Floor is a minimum set of SP programs, which includes several interventions such as cash transfers, social insurance, safety nets, and labor market interventions, among others.
Edillon told BusinessMirror that an SP floor guarantees access to essential health care and maternity care, among others for vulnerable persons. Institutionalizing a social protection floor will help address gaps in social protection nationwide, she added.
While the country had a legislated Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program and the pension systems through the Social Security Systems and Government Service Insurance System (GSIS) are working, they are not enough, she said.
Per Edillon, the SP floor can be an effective way to respond to the needs of vulnerable persons in pandemics and natural calamities like typhoons.