A DAY after the Department of Energy (DOE) said that it does not expect yellow alerts in Luzon this year, the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) said Tuesday that operating margins were forecast to be thin from April to June this year.
This means that yellow alerts could be issued.
A yellow alert is issued by the NGCP when excess power is insufficient to meet the transmission grid’s regulating and contingency requirement, pegged at the time at about 495 megawatts (MW) and 647MW respectively.
Luzon, it stressed, could experience thin power supply this summer due to higher demand in the new normal. Thus, it highlighted the need for policies supporting demand side management to ensure adequate power during the presidential elections in May.
“On paper, there appears to be sufficient supply to meet demand; but the plan on paper, the GOMP [Grid Operating and Maintenance Program], is not always followed. It is when there are unscheduled shutdowns and derations, and extensions of maintenance duration, that grid operations may be disrupted enough to warrant the issuance of a grid alert status,” explained NGCP.
The Department of Energy (DOE) forecasted a total peak demand of 12,387 MW for Luzon to occur in the last week of May, a 747MW increase from the actual 2021 peak load of 11,640MW which occurred on May 28, 2021.
For Visayas, the peak demand occurred in December, mainly due to the activity brought about by the holiday season, while in Mindanao, the peak demand occurred in August.
“Thin operating margins [power in excess of demand, which is used to manage and balance the grid], is forecasted in the Luzon grid from April to June due to increase in demand during the summer, which includes the critical election period,” the NGCP warned.
NGCP’s role
As the transmission service provider, NGCP said it could only give an overview of the current supply and demand situation, and endeavor to dispatch any and all available grid resources. It, however, stressed, that it cannot intervene on matters concerning power generation.
NGCP has submitted the GOMP to the DOE, which approved it last January 10.
The GOMP is the consolidated preventive maintenance schedules of power plants.
In compliance with the directive of the DOE, no maintenance shutdowns were scheduled during the summer months. “NGCP, in compliance with its mandate, coordinated with the generation and distribution sectors so that we could optimize and rationalize our own maintenance schedules, to ensure sufficiency, at least on paper, of power supply throughout the year,” the company said.
However, as early as January, some generating units extended their maintenance shutdowns while others derated to decrease their committed generation output. As a result, yellow alerts were issued last January 10 and 11.
A red alert status, meanwhile, is issued when supplies are insufficient to meet consumer demand and the transmission grid’s regulating requirement.
Red alerts
Red alerts were issued over the Luzon Grid last May 31, June 1 and 2, when a similar round of extended and unplanned maintenance shutdowns and derations occurred, depleting excess supplies and leading to rotational power interruptions implemented across the entire Luzon.
To alleviate possible power shortages, NGCP appealed to policy makers to immediately explore demand side management strategies to mitigate any possible power supply issues in the coming summer months, especially at or around the time of the presidential elections.
NGCP is a Filipino-led, privately owned company in charge of operating, maintaining, and developing the country’s power grid, led by majority shareholders and Vice Chairman of the Board Henry Sy, Jr. and Co-Vice Chairman Robert Coyiuto, Jr.
The DOE met with NGCP last week to discuss the country’s power demand and supply outlook for the year.
“The goal of these meetings is to make sure that all power sector stakeholders are aligned for CY2022. The availability of stable and reliable power supply is of grave importance—there should be no surprises this year, especially given our continuous battle against the Covid-19 pandemic, regions that have been affected by Typhoon Odette are rebuilding themselves, and of course, because we are in an election year,” DOE Secretary Alfonso Cusi said in a statement.
Image credits: Nonie Reyes