The country’s pork production next year would likely remain flat at 1 million metric tons (MMT) as domestic hog raisers remain adamant to repopulate amid continuing outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF), according to an international agency.
The United States Department of Agriculture-Foreign Agricultural Service in Manila (USDA-FAS Manila) made the projection, noting that any production expansion made by some hog farms would only offset the reduced output in farms still facing ASF challenges.
“Post forecasts 2022 local production flat at 1.0 million MT carcass weight equivalent [CWE], as industry contacts report prospects remain uncertain amid continuing cases across the country,” USDA-FAS Manila said in its Global Agricultural Information Network (Gain) report published recently.
“While some commercial farms have started to repopulate to maintain their business, producers have generally remained cautious absent a commercially available vaccine,” USDA-FAS Manila added.
The USDA-FAS Manila noted that should the ongoing vaccine trials succeed it may “buoy local producers’ confidence in repopulation and boost domestic production.” However, citing industry contacts, USDA-FAS Manila added that total hog production recovery is not expected until 2024.
“Post maintains 2021 production at 1.0 million MT, as the recent ASF outbreaks in Cagayan Province and Ilocos Norte [both located in northern Luzon] are offset by active repopulation efforts of a few commercial pig farms in Tarlac. Some ASF-free areas in Mindanao and the Visayas have also increased their production,” it explained.
The USDA-FAS Manila projected that the country’s pork imports next year would decline by 25 percent to 375,000 MT from 500,000 MT this year due to the expiration of the expanded minimum access volume (MAV) and reversion of tariffs to higher levels.
The drop in domestic pork demand owing to anticipated higher pork prices is also a factor in the decline in pork imports next year, according to the agency.
“Post forecasts 2022 pork per capita consumption dropping to 12.2 kg [kilogram], as the scheduled expiration of the increased MAV allotment and the reversion of pork tariffs push pork prices higher. On the other hand, per capita consumption in 2021 is expected to be 13.5 kg due to the increased market access,” the USDA-FAS Manila said.
The USDA-FAS Manila projected that total pork consumption next year would decline by 8.33 percent to 1.374 MMT from 1.499 MT estimated this year.
The USDA-FAS Manila noted that the government’s twin measures of lowering pork tariffs and increasing MAV have led to a P20 per kilogram reduction in the retail prices of pork from P380 per kilogram in April to P360 per kilogram in August.
“Following the Philippine government’s efforts to increase the pork MAV allocation and lower tariff rates for 2021, rising prices were averted and started to decrease,” it said.
In an earlier statement, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said there has been a drop in the retail prices of fresh pork.
Citing its price monitoring reports, the DA said the prevailing price of pork kasim is now at P280 per kilogram compared to P360 per kilogram in January, while pork liempo is now at P340 per kilogram from P400 per kilogram in January.
“The DA projects a continuing downward movement of local pork prices at NCR [National Capital Region] wet markets. The retail prices generally follow the price movements of farm-gate prices of hogs,” it said.
“Available data from hog producers indicate that farm-gate prices have gradually declined since January 2021. If the trend continues, the DA projects retail prices may return back to the price level of September last year,” it added.
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