The Department of Health (DOH) believes it has seen “improvements” in the fight the against Covid-19.
This, despite the the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey that revealed 57 percent or at least six in 10 Filipino adults believe that “the worst is yet to come” amid the pandemic.
“We remain committed to improving our response and mitigation strategies as we learn more about the virus,” the DOH said on Friday after the total number of Covid-19 cases surged to 279,526 after 3,257 newly-confirmed cases were logged.
Of the total number of confirmed cases, 65,906 (23.6 percent) are active cases, 208,790 (74.7 percent) have recovered and 4,830 (1.7 percent) have died.
The result of the SWS survey conducted on July 3 to 6, is higher compared to the 47 percent last May when asked of the same question.
The DOH reiterated, “We are all fighting an invisible enemy and unless a vaccine has been made available or even then, nothing is sure.”
The only sure thing, the DOH said, is that people will be protected if the minimum health standards will be practiced.
Improvements
The DOH said that they saw improvements in the number from August 17 as compared to September 17.
For the Case Doubling Time from 9.52 days on August 17 it improved to 10.84 days on September 17
“The Case Doubling Time is a measure of the speed of the outbreak. Hence, we want a longer doubling time or slower spread of the outbreak. As of September 17, 2020, the Case Doubling Time is 10.84 days. This is slightly better compared to the CDT last August 17 which was 9.52 days,” the DOH noted.
The Mortality Doubling Time (MDT) has improved as well.
“The same logic can be applied to the mortality doubling time. We want longer MDT which means slower increase in the number of deaths. As of September 17,2020 the Mortality Doubling Time is 15.54 which is better compared to the MDT of 13.96 days last August 17.
As to the Utilization Rate among Temporary Treatment and Monitoring Facilities (TTMFs) as of September 17, the national Critical Care Utilization (CCU) rate is 45 percent compared to last August 17, which was 49 percent.
The CCU rate is the percentage of the critical care resources that are being used or being occupied at any time. It separately measures 3 hospital resources namely: Mechanical ventilators, Intensive Care Unit beds, and Isolation beds.
“This improvement may have been the result of the One Hospital Command (in NCR) and the efforts of hospitals in ramping up their bed capacity for Covid-19.”
There is an increase in the utilization rate of TTMFs facilities from 33 percent last August 17 to 38 percent this September 17. This may be due to various factors such as:
1) Increasing number of mild and asymptomatic cases being brought to TTMF; and
2) Increasing number of referrals from L1-3 hospitals (applicable to mild and asymptomatic cases) or downtriaging.
Meanwhile, the reproduction number or Rt indicates the possible number of people being infected by a sick person, at a specific time with control measures in place.
“The goal is for Rt to be less than 1 and sustain it, which would mean that, on average, an infected person is infecting less than one person, eventually stopping the transmission of Covid-19. “
As of September 2, the Rt is 0.953 (Report date September 17). The Rt is measured using symptom onset, this does not include in the interpretation the past 14 to 16 days given the time between symptoms, health seeking, testing, and reporting.
The DOH noted that when interpreting the Rt, “keep in mind that it is a lagging indicator, that is, it provides a snapshot of the situation two weeks ago.”
The number does not change on a daily basis, it said.
“This is a good indicator since it means that 1 Covid-19 patient infects almost 1 person. We want to maintain this value by continuing the minimum health standards.”
“While we have seen improvements in our numbers, hindi pa tapos ang laban [the fight is not yet over]. We do want the public to be complacent and to think that
everything is already okay. Dahil kapag naging complacent tayo, magiging hindi tayo maingat [Because if we become complacent, we care less],” the DOH said.
Image credits: AP/Aaron Favila