THE longest Christmas season in the world is set to begin in less than two weeks in the Philippines, but doctors and local economists agree that this year’s observance of the holidays will be somber.
In the view of Dr. Antonio Dans of the Philippine Society of General Internal Medicine and the Healthcare Professionals Alliance Against Covid-19 (HPAAC), the pandemic will certainly cast a shadow over this Christmas season.
Dans said in an online briefing on Tuesday that this year’s festivities will not be as noisy and chaotic. He does not even expect any Christmas rush to happen this year because of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19).
“I think the pandemic may continue until Christmas,” Dans later told the BusinessMirror via SMS. “Lots of prayers are needed.”
This will have an impact on the economy in the fourth quarter, which has traditionally been the strongest in terms of GDP growth. Data showed that household consumption increased by no less than 5.5 percent in the past five years.
In the past five years, data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed fourth-quarter household consumption growing as high as 6.7 percent but not lower than 5.5 percent.
De La Salle University economist Maria Ella C. Oplas sees the holidays as being rather quiet, with some traditions such as reunions being done differently, if at all.
Online reunions
If there will be some growth in spending, she said this may come mostly from people who are spending for others who are in need. However, Oplas said Filipino families will continue to spend since it’s part of the holiday traditions but it will not be much.
“It’s going to be a different Christmas. Reunions might still be done online,” Oplas said. “I guess the rest of the Filipinos are tweaking their expenses a little, but definitely they will spend.”
Unionbank Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said fourth-quarter household spending will continue to contract but not as much as the contraction of 15.5 percent recorded in the second quarter of the year.
Asuncion said they expect full-year growth to contract 8 percent this year, with the fourth quarter contracting 3.9 percent. At that rate, the contraction of household consumption will be in single digits.
He said household consumption may continue to be driven by remittance inflows from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) who still have jobs abroad.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) recently reported that personal remittances from OFWs grew 7.6 percent to $2.737 billion in June 2020 from $2.545 billion in June 2019.
“Support may still come from ‘home’ consumption and, hopefully, the fiscal stimulus factor. We may also see more positive growth from remittance inflows improving purchasing power. Note that in the fourth quarter higher inflows are expected due to Christmas,” Asuncion said.
Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development (ACERD) Director Alvin P. Ang said the muted household spending is expected to continue until a vaccine is made available to all.
However, Ang said spending could still be driven by online spending. There could be a spike in online orders since it’s the holidays and it will offer Filipinos the opportunity to remain in their homes while doing their Christmas shopping.
Signs of recovery
Nonetheless, he agreed that household spending will still show signs of recovery in the fourth quarter. Ang said the growth of spending will still contract but will not be as deep as the second and third quarters.
“Our plan on ReCharge PH is about restarting social and economic activities while engaging all of society in the fight against Covid-19. It think it’s quite clear that government cannot do it alone; everyone needs to do his/her part,” National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) Undersecretary Rosemarie G. Edillon told the BusinessMirror. “We think that with everyone doing his/her part, we can have a quicker bounce back.”
Seven problems, solutions
Dans explained in the briefing that the HPAAC has identified seven problems and their causes as well as provided solutions for each one.
These problems, Dans said, were the symptoms of diseases. The symptoms are hospital overloading; inefficient case-finding and isolation; inefficient contact tracing and quarantine; and workplace outbreaks.
The symptoms also include inadequate and unsafe transport options; difficult public compliance; and worsening inequities.
Hospital overloading, he said, is caused by weak hospital coordination and this aims to be resolved by the creation of the One-hospital command.
The One-hospital command will help patients determine which hospitals can still accommodate them, whether for Covid-19 cases or non-Covid-19 diseases.
In terms of inefficient case-finding and isolation as well as inefficient contact tracing and quarantine, Dans said these are caused by weak primary care.
This can be resolved by the One Covid-Referral Network (LGU), which will not only refer local patients to hospitals but also pharmacies, clinics, laboratories and other services.
Overwhelming science is also one reason for hospital overloading; inefficient case-finding and isolation; inefficient contact tracing and quarantine; workplace outbreaks; inadequate and unsafe transport options; and difficult public compliance.
Numerous studies
Dans said that in the past eight months alone, a total of 58,672 studies or researches have been released relating to Covid-19. This means that every five minutes, a new research about Covid-19 is released.
“Ang lunas po, nandiyan na dati pa, hindi lang nagagamit nang husto—ang HTAC [Health Technology Assessment Council]. Nasa UHC [Universal Healthcare] law ’yan. Tungkulin nila ang suriin ’yang 58,672 studies [The cure for that is the HTAC. That is part of the UHC law. They are tasked to peruse the 58,672 studies],” Dans said.
“Sila ang dapat konsultahin kung ano ang tamang gamot, bakuna, test, at iba pa. ’Wag po ’yung manufacturer ang tatanungin natin kasi siempre, baka piliin lang ang datos na binibigay sa atin. Lalo namang ’wag hanapin lang sa FB o Google [They should be the ones consulted on the right medicine, vaccine, test, etc. We cannot consult the manufacturer because they might just choose which data they will provide to the public. This information should also not be obtained through Facebook or Google],” he added.
Meanwhile, in terms of inefficient case-finding isolation; inefficient contact tracing and quarantine; workplace outbreaks and worsening inequities, the problem is inadequate occupational safety and health (OSH) implementation.
Dans said the solution for this is to enforce workplace safety guidelines. He said he hoped companies will shoulder the cost of testing because the cost may become a heavy burden, especially for the rank and file.
Further, he said inadequate and unsafe transport options; difficult public compliance; and worsening inequities are caused by transport inequities.
Dans lamented that while only 20 percent of those living in Metro Manila have their own vehicles, 90 percent of the roads are devoted to them.
He said HPAAC was hopeful that the safety guidelines released by the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) will be followed to the letter.
These guidelines are accompanied by lanes for active transport along Edsa, including in local government units (LGUs) such as San Juan, Pasig and Quezon City.
Dans said poor Internet connection is also a reason for all the seven symptoms or problems related to Covid-19. He lamented the inadequate broadband infrastructure in the country.
He said unserved and underserved areas are all located in less affluent places nationwide. This is affecting not only the flow of information about Covid-19 but also the ability of schools to adapt to remote learning.
Lastly, Dans said the lack of social support is one of the reasons for the seven problems that the country is encountering at this time.
He cited the need to emphasize the importance of a whole-of-society approach in responding to the Covid-19 challenges. Dans said with the Social Amelioration Program (SAP) already spent, those who have something to spare should start helping others.
“Para sa mga kaya tumulong—tangkilikin ang mga negosyong sinisimulan ng ating mga kababayan. Huwag na kayo tumawad. Keep the change. Tip generously. Magpadala ng ayuda sa mga suki niyo dati na matagal niyo nang hindi nakikita. Kung kaya, habaan ang sick leave ng mga employees at tulungan sila kung may nagkasakit [For those who have the means to help, patronize local businesses. Do not ask for discounts. Keep the change. Tip generously. Send help to your suki whom you haven’t seen in a while. And if you can, lengthen the sick leaves of employees and help them if they are sick],” Dans said.
“Makitulong at sumoporta sa mga community projects para sa mahihirap. Mahirap pong mamatay ng Covid, pero napakahirap pong mamatay sa gutom, lalo na kung apektado ang inyong mga anak [Help and support community projects for the poor. It’s difficult to die of Covid-19, but it is very difficult to die of hunger, especially if your children are affected],” he added.
Indeed, the scenario of millions of children being added to the ranks of the hungry as a result of the pandemic’s impact would be the most jarring introduction to what should be the season of love and giving. The counsel of Dans and his group merits urgent action, as the ’ber months are about to come upon us.
Image credits: Skypixel | Dreamstime.com
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