An estimated 10 to 14 tropical cyclones or typhoons may enter the country or develop between July to December this year, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).
In a recent webinar, Pagasa senior research analyst Ana Lisa Solis presented an outlook of the country’s rainfall in the next six months.
For July, she said the country will experience generally near normal rainfall conditions, except for some patches of below-normal rainfall over western Luzon, Bicol, Mindoro provinces and some parts of the Visayas.
Solis, who belongs to the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) unit of Pagasa, said August will have generally near- to above-normal rainfall condition in most parts of the country, except for the provinces in northern and Central Luzon, while the National Capital Region and parts of Calabarzon will probably experience below normal rainfall condition.
“September will have a generally near normal rainfall condition for the whole country,” added Solis.
In October, Solis said the country will experience a near-normal rainfall condition except for some patches of below-normal rainfall over Ilocos Norte.
Solis said the country will have a generally near- to above-normal rainfall condition in November, except for some patches of below-normal rainfall over Ilocos and parts of Central Luzon.
In December, Solis said the country will have a normal to above-normal rainfall condition, while above normal conditions will be likely in most parts of Visayas and Mindanao.
“Generally near to above average temperature is predicted in most areas of the country during the forecast period except for slightly below average temperatures in July in some areas of Luzon and the Visayas,” Solis said.
Meanwhile, CLIMPS also gave its forecast of tropical cyclone frequency from July to December of this year.
Solis said July will have the biggest number of tropical cyclones with an average of two to four, while August to October are projected to have two or three each month. November and December are expected to have two or three tropical cyclones.
On maximum temperature, Pagasa gave its forecast for northern Luzon, lowlands Luzon, mountainous Luzon, Metro Manila, lowlands Visayas, lowlands Mindanao and mountainous Mindanao in July.
Northern Luzon will also have a hot temperature average starting from 32.8 degrees Celsius to 40.2°C, while lowland Luzon will also have a warm temperature from 30.6°C to 38.7°C.
Residents of mountainous Luzon will experience colder weather with an average of 25.3 degrees C to 27.4 degrees C.
Metro Manilans will have a warm temperature that with a range from 33.7 degrees C to 36.3 to degrees C.
The lowlands of the Visayas will also be warm with an average of 32.6 degrees C and 36.9 degrees C, while lowlands Mindanao will be in almost in the same situation with an average of 32.6°C and 36.2°C.
Meanwhile, the mountainous Mindanao will be surprisingly warm with an average of 30.8°C and 32.8°C.