The country’s corn imports in market year 2020-2021 may rise by a fifth to 600,000 metric tons (MT) due to higher feed demand fueled by a 3-percent expansion in local poultry production, a Global Agricultural Information Network (Gain) said.
The Gain report, prepared by the United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service in Manila, projected that corn imports would expand by 100,000 MT from 500,000 MT recorded in the previous market year.
A corn market year (MY) starts in June and ends in July of the following year.
“Feed corn demand will increase in tandem with the projected 3-percent expansion in poultry output in MY 20/21,” the report read, which was published recently.
“The local poultry industry was projected for stronger growth, but the closure of the food service sector during the pandemic significantly limited demand,” it added.
The Gain report estimates that local corn production in MY 2020-2021 would rise also by 100,000 MT to 8.2 million MT from 8.1 MMT estimated output in the current market year.
The report added that corn feed demand would increase to 6.7 MMT from 6.6 MMT due to expansion of the local poultry industry.
The devastation caused by the African swine fever (ASF) on the local hog industry forced pig raisers, particularly backyard ones, to shift to broiler chicken production to cut losses and take advantage of consumers’ higher demand for chicken meat.
The Department of Agriculture (DA) projected that the country would have a chicken meat surplus of at least 160 days to 314 days this year.
In a worst-case scenario, the DA estimates that chicken meat supply would reach 1.536 MMT, about 406,216 MT higher than the total demand of 1.13 MMT. This would result in a 160-day chicken meat surplus.
In a best-case scenario, the country would have a 314 day surplus heading to 2021 as supply could peak at nearly 1.75 MMT, outpacing a lower demand of 953,644 MT and as Filipinos cut consumption due to the impact of Covid-19 pandemic.
The country’s corn output in the first quarter declined by 3.4 percent to 2.34 MMT, from last year’s 2.42 MMT, as low farm-gate prices discouraged farmers from planting more corn.
Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data obtained by the BusinessMirror showed that corn production in the January-to-March period contracted by 82,169.71 MT.
Historical PSA data also showed that this is the lowest first quarter corn output in four years since the 1.92 MMT recorded volume in the January-to-March period of 2016.
Philippine Maize Federation Inc. President Roger V. Navarro said low farm-gate prices discouraged farmers from planting corn.
“Farm-gate prices were really bad during harvest,” Navarro earlier told the BusinessMirror.
The average farm-gate price of yellow corn in the first quarter declined 11.6 percent to P12.27 per kilogram, from last year’s P13.88 per kg, PSA data analyzed by the BusinessMirror showed. Also, the average quotation for white corn fell 5 percent to P13.87 per kg from P14.6 per kg.
“This year I believe corn production would decline as the lack of rain would delay planting. However, the reduction in output would be mitigated by lower demand by poultry and hog sectors due to dampened demand for meat products caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 [Covid-19],” said Navarro.
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