The reopening of the economy must be done gradually to prevent the spread of the coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19), according to a study released by the University of the Philippines School of Economics (UPSE).
In the paper, titled “A Risk Assessment on the Covid-19 Situation in the Philippines: Implications on the ECQ Policy,” authors led by Marikina Rep. Stella Quimbo said the gradual reopening of the economy need to be accompanied by mass testing.
The authors said the lockdown has been effective in containing the spread of the virus, based on their analysis. Mass testing can help ensure that the “gains” of efforts to curb the spread of Covid-19 are not wasted under the new normal.
“Any degree of reopening of the economy, we must ensure that we maintain such manageable spread of the virus. This can be done most effectively by mass testing,” the authors said.
“With mass testing, we are able to ensure that as individuals leave their households, their physical presence in transportation networks and workplaces will not cause the further spread of the virus,” they added.
The gradual opening up of the economy starts with the implementation of border control. The authors said provinces that are Covid-19 free must ensure that there are new entrants in their locality to maintain their status.
The authors also said there is a need to achieve a 100 percent contact tracing for all Covid-19 cases. Based on their analysis, around 791 Filipinos who tested positive for the virus had “unknown residence” making contact tracing impossible.
“DOH [Department of Health] must therefore review its contact tracing protocol and demand its strict implementation by the local health offices,” the authors said.
For provinces without Covid-19 cases, the authors said, there is a need to implement two one week phases in opening up their economies.
The authors said Covid-19 free provinces with low and medium-risk of getting infected by the virus should be prioritized to prevent over-burdening the health system. This should be followed in the second week for provinces that are Covid-19 free but with high risk for infection.
They said data set to be released on May 15 on disease surveillance can be used as guide to determine whether it is safe for provinces that are not Covid-19 free to reduce restrictions.
Lifting restrictions, however, must be done gradually particularly in select areas of the economy, such as schools, farming and construction. This must also include the diligent practice of social distancing.
“As we proceed with the gradual reopening of our economy and improve our knowledge on how to control virus spread, liberalizing work-related policies can be achieved in stages. With the lifting of the ECQ [enhanced community quarantine order], all economic activity can resume,” the authors said.
Meanwhile, the authors also said a number of provinces placed under ECQ and general community quarantine (GCQ) need to be reassessed given that they are not high risk, medium risk or low risk.
They said only 17 areas placed by the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID) under ECQ or GCQ can be retained.
These 17 areas are Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Quezon, Camarines Sur, Aklan, Nueva Vizcaya, Agusan del Norte, Leyte, Ilocos Sur, Bukidnon, Romblon, Bohol, Camiguin, Northern Samar and Palawan.
“Mass testing should be undertaken in geographic areas and workplaces so that hot spots are rapidly identified and contained,” the authors said.
“In high-risk areas, such as NCR [National Capital Region], some increased economic activity can be tolerated provided that a protocol to ensure Covid-free workplaces, including Covid-free transport of workers to workplaces, is in place and can be properly enforced,” they added.