While the Philippine population is on track to reaching the so-called replacement rate in five years, the Commission on Population (Popcom) said such is only one of the conditions that will allow the country to reap the demographic dividend.
The latest population estimates, based on the 2015 Population Census, from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), showed that the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman is attainable by 2025.
By 2025, the PSA estimates there would be 115.378 million Filipinos. Around 58.19 million are males and 57.186 million are females.
“This new projection indicates that the second necessary element [of three] is attainable before 2025,” Popcom Undersecretary Juan Antonio A. Perez III told the BusinessMirror.
Perez explained that the three conditions in reaping the demographic dividend includes the reduction of the total fertility rate (TFR) of 2 based on PSA estimates is already attainable by 2025.
However, when it comes to the two other conditions, Perez said, much work still needs to be done. The two conditions are that majority working age population, while the third is having a dependency ratio of 50 percent.
“The third item is very much a work in progress but should go hand in hand with reduction of TFR. Demographic dividend is not automatic if unemployment remains high among young people and women,” Perez said. It can be noted that based on the latest Labor Force Survey (LFS) data, youth unemployment increased to 14.4 percent, while unemployment rate among women increased to 39.4 percent in July.
Apart from this, a study commissioned by the National Economic and Development Authority showed the gender gap in the Labor Force Participation Rate remains at 30 percent, the widest in the region.
Data showed that currently, married men are more likely to participate in the labor force by 11 percentage points more compared to never married men and 5 percentage points more compared to men who are separated, annulled or widowed.
By comparison, currently married women have a lower likelihood to participate in the labor force by 12 percentage points relative to never married women and by 10 percentage points relative to women who are separated or widowed.
The presence of young children aged three years and below is also associated negatively with labor force participation for women and is not significantly related with men’s labor force participation.
Neda said there is a positive marginal effect of children in the school ages which may indicate the need for women to augment family income to defray for educational expenditures.
Image credits: AP/Aaron Favila