“CONFUSION and chaos,” and not deterrence against conflict, will be the outcome of keeping the ambiguities in the country’s Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the United States, the country’s defense chief said on Tuesday, contradicting the belief aired by Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro L. Locsin Jr.
Secretary Delfin N. Lorenzana said the vagueness is something that will not help the Philippines’s cause, especially in times of crisis, as he pushed for a review of the 1051 treaty—a matter he raised first in November 2018 as he noted how the past decades’ developments in the South China Sea warranted a clearer commitment by the US in defending its key ally in the region.
Lorenzana was reacting to Locsin’s remarks during a joint news briefing with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday. The country’s top diplomat said that “in vagueness lies the best deterrence,” referring to the “non-definitive” 1951 treaty with the Americans.
“I do not believe that ambiguity or vagueness of the Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty will serve as a deterrent. In fact, it will cause confusion and chaos during a crisis,” Lorenzana said as he made his position, five days after the meeting of Locsin and Pompeo in Manila.
“The fact that the security environment now is so vastly different and much more complex than the bipolar security construct of the era when the MDT was written necessitates a review of the treaty,” he added.
Review should have been in 1992
In fact, Lorenzana pointed out, the Philippine government should have even moved for the automatic review of the treaty immediately after the US bases at Subic and Clark were shut down 26 years ago, a year after the Senate voted not to renew the US bases treaty. Lorenzana said the US, as a treaty partner that uses the South China Sea or the West Philippine Sea as a passageway, should have done something when Beijing began its assertive actions in the territory.
“A couple of years after the US left the bases, the Chinese began their aggressive actions in Mischief Reef—not an armed attack but it was aggression just the same. The US did not stop it,” he said.
It was in reference to Beijing’s move in 1995 to build what it first called “fishermen’s shelter” in the disputed waters.
Aside from the country’s territorial tiff with China, Lorenzana is concerned about the possibility of the country’s being dragged into the fray once the US and China go into a shooting war, given that the Philippines is also obligated by the treaty to aid the Americans.
“The Philippines is not in a conflict with anyone and will not be at war with anyone in the future. But the United States, with the increased and frequent passage of its naval vessels in the West Philippine Sea, is more likely to be involved in a shooting war,” he said. “In such a case and on the basis of the MDT, the Philippines will be automatically involved.”
“It is not the lack of reassurance that worries me. It is being involved in a war that we do not seek and do not want,” Lorenzana said.