AFTER expanding for over a year and a half, the country’s farm output contracted by 0.83 percent in the third quarter, as erratic weather conditions battered the sector’s main driver: crops.
The country’s agricultural output, at constant prices, in the July-to-September period reached P78.118 billion, compared to the P81.068 billion recorded in the same period last year, according to data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
“For the first nine months of 2018, agriculture posted a 0.15-percent increase in output,” the PSA said in its quarterly report, titled “Performance of Philippine Agriculture,” published on Wednesday.
This is the first time that farm output declined after expanding for six consecutive quarters since the first quarter of last year. The last time agriculture production posted a decline was in the fourth quarter of 2016.
The crops subsector, which accounted for 45.58 percent of the total output, posted a 3.64-percent drop in production. From January to September, the subsector’s output went down by 1.38 percent.
“Palay and corn production dropped by 5.70 percent and 14.83 percent, respectively,” the PSA added.
The PSA attributed the decrease to the damages caused by various typhoons in provinces regarded as major producers of rice, corn and vegetables in Northern Luzon.
Both the livestock and poultry subsectors sustained growth during the period, with output expanding by 2.15 percent and 5.45 percent, respectively, according to the PSA.
The PSA said the poultry subsector contributed 18.44 percent of the total farm production. Output gains were observed in chicken meat, chicken eggs and duck eggs.
The PSA attributed the increase in output in the two subsectors to the expansion of farms to meet the Filipinos’ growing demand for meat. Production in the fisheries subsector was slashed by 2.64 percent as erratic weather conditions limited the fishermen’s fishing days and trips.
Climate change
Agriculture Secretary Emmanuel F. Piñol told the BusinessMirror that climate change is now the “biggest” challenge for Philippine agriculture due to its detrimental effect on crops.
To cope with the ill effects of climate change, Piñol said the Department of Agriculture, in coordination with the local government units, and other agencies, will review the planting calendar.
“[For] fisheries, [we] will have to focus more [on] aqua and mariculture,” he said.
Economist Rolando T. Dy said the decline in farm output was expected following the series of typhoons that hit the country during the third quarter.
“My earlier forecast was negative 1 to 2 percent,” Dy, the executive director of the University of Asia and the Pacific’s Center for Food and Agri-business, told the BusinessMirror.
Dy supported Piñol’s comments and added that the government should have a scope “for geographic crop planning and value chain corridors” due to different climatic conditions.
“For example, don’t just rely on the Cordillera Administrative Region for highland veggies for the National Capital Region [NCR]. [The government should look at] Quezon, Rizal and Laguna,” he said.
Dy also noted that the government’s focus on aquaculture has been “long overdue” as the country is already “far behind” in such department against Southeast Asian neighbors like Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.
The government must “diversify” the supply base of various crops if it wants the farm sector to recover immediately, according to Dy. “For instance, diversify the supply base of vegetables. Why not Eastern Rizal to supply East NCR like Quezon City and Marikina?” he said.
As for long-term measures, Dy said there should be stakeholder-driven road maps with details on “value chain corridors” for the country’s commodities. “Coconut fertilization, intercropping and hybrid replanting are prime examples.”
Following the third quarter performance of the farm sector, Dy said full-year expansion will be flat at best, “with a very high likelihood of going south.”
Image credits: Nonie Reyes