‘With clear benefits to people and natural ecosystems, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to 2ºC, could go hand in hand with ensuring a more sustainable and equitable society,” the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said last week when it released the summary of its Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5ºC in Incheon, Korea.
The scientific report, alarming as it is, drew various reactions with some environmental groups demanding for, bold climate action, a step backward from coal addiction and a step toward clean, renewable energy solutions.
The scientific report will be a key scientific input into the Katowice Climate Change Conference in Poland in December when governments review the Paris Agreement to tackle climate change.
A signatory to the Paris Agreement, is the Philippines on the right path?
Warning signs
“One of the key messages that comes out very strongly from this report is that we are already seeing the consequences of 1°C of global warming through more extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, among other changes,” said Panmao Zhai, cochairman of IPCC Working Group I.
The report highlights a number of climate-change impacts that could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5ºC compared to 2ºC, or more. For instance, by 2100, the global sea-level rise would be 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared with 2°C.
The likelihood of the Arctic Ocean being free of sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of 1.5°C, compared with at least once per decade with 2°C.
Coral reefs would decline by 70 percent to 90 percent with global warming of 1.5°C, whereas virtually all (greater than 99 percent) would be lost with 2°C.
“Every extra bit of warming matters, especially since warming of 1.5ºC or higher increases the risk associated with long-lasting or irreversible changes, such as the loss of some ecosystems,” said Hans-Otto Pörtner, cochairman of IPCC Working Group II.
Limiting global warming would also give people and ecosystems more room to adapt and remain below relevant risk thresholds, Pörtner added.
PHL committed to global climate goal
Sought for reaction on October 10, Undersecretary Analiza R. Teh of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) said the Philippines is more focused on strengthening the adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities than reducing its carbon emissions, a policy which deviates from its commitment under the Paris Agreement.
Under the Paris Agreement, the Philippines committed to reducing by 70 percent its carbon emission between 2020 and 2030.
Teh, the DENR’s undersecretary for climate change and mining concerns, said while the Philippines ratified the Paris Agreement, the Duterte administration is currently conducting a review of the country’s commitment with the end goal of submitting a new and more realistic carbon emission-reduction target that will be enshrined in the country’s National Determined Contribution (NDC).
“Our programs and activities are geared toward strengthening our adaptive capacity, to ensure the survival of our vulnerable communities,” Teh told the BusinessMirror in a telephone interview on October 9.
The decision was made in light of the urgency of enhancing adaptive capacities and strengthening resiliency in response to climate-change impacts.
“It is more on adaptation than mitigation,” Teh said.
Pursuing climate resiliency
Environment Secretary Roy A. Cimatu, concurrent chairman of the Cabinet Cluster on Climate Change Adaptation, Mitigation and Disaster Risk Reduction (CCAM-DRRM), meanwhile, vowed to pursue “climate resiliency and improved adaptive capacity of ecosystems and communities to fight continuing climate chaos.”
Through a prepared statement sent to the BusinessMirror in an e-mail through Teh, the DENR chief said the CCAM-DRR Cabinet Cluster is pushing for the establishment of climate- and disaster-resilient communities supporting equitable and sustainable development.
“For 2019, we desire the enhancement of climate- and disaster-resilient communities in the priority eight climate-vulnerable provinces, namely, Western Samar, Negros Oriental, Saranggani, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Dinagat, Sorsogon and Masbate,” Cimatu said.
Not a major polluter
Cimatu assured, however, that while the Philippines remains to be a small emitting sector when it comes to greenhouse gases, accounting for only around 0.3 percent of global emissions, the country, nevertheless, remains committed to achieving the climate goal under the Paris Agreement of limiting the increase in global temperatures to 1.5°C.
On account of the country’s vulnerability to climate-change impacts, the country’s contributions will reflect climate-change adaptation as the anchor strategy and mitigation will be pursued as a function of adaptation.
“The Cluster is specifically working toward four desired outcome objectives.
“These outcome objectives include increasing adaptive capacities of vulnerable communities; ensuring an adequate supply of clean air, water and other natural resources; increasing resilience of critical infrastructure; and enhancing knowledge, access to information and institutional capacities,” he added.
Working toward a low-carbon economy, the DENR nevertheless vowed to reduce emissions in the wastes and industry sectors in the draft NDC.
Mitigation options being considered for the draft NDC in the wastes and industry sector include the following—Waste: solid-waste management; treatment of domestic and industrial wastewater; and industry: energy efficiency/fuel switching (energy-intensive industries); energy efficiency/hydrofluorocarbon substitution in refrigeration and air-conditioning; mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants (e.g., improved cook stoves).
Failure to demand accountability
Leon Dulce, national coordinator of Kalikasan-People’s Network for the Environment said via Messenger on October 10 that the latest IPCC report drives the urgent message that governments are failing not only to reach the ambition necessary to limit global warming to relatively safe levels but also to wrest accountability from the top polluter countries and corporations.
“There is no other way of effectively alleviating the climate crisis than to exact deep, drastic emissions cuts and climate reparations from these economies. The Philippines should not only prioritize building the adaptive resiliency necessary to protect communities from its disruptive impacts but also to strongly negotiate for polluter countries to unconditionally commit to emissions cuts and just compensation to vulnerable countries based on science and their historic contributions,” Dulce said.
According to Dulce, the landmark initiative of the Commission on Human Rights to investigate the human-rights accountabilities of the top 50 polluter corporations should be fully supported by the national government. The same indictments should be done to historic contributors, such as the United States, the European Union, Japan and China.
Bold climate action needed
In a statement released on October 8, the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (iCSC) said immediate and ambitious action to limit global warming is not only crucial for the Philippines to stave off the worst impacts of climate change but also key to unlocking economic growth.
“The IPCC report is a call for governments to step up their act in avoiding the worst impacts of the climate crisis,” Red Constantino, ICSC executive director said.
“What is stopping the world from holding warming to 1.5°C throughout the 21st century, while reaping considerable economic benefits, is political will,” he said.
The highlights of the report, as well as its economic and political implications for the Philippines, were discussed in a press briefing held by the Climate Change Commission (CCC) with ICSC, a Manila-based international climate and energy policy group.
Climate scientist and meteorologist Dr. Rosa Perez, the sole Filipina lead author of the IPCC special report, presented the summary of the report immediately after its global launch held in Incheon, Korea.
Dr. Toby Monsod, associate professor of the University of the Philippines School of Economics, said climate solutions should be interrelated and baked into major socioeconomic and political policies.
“Anticipating the slow onset events of climate change also presents an opportunity to spur wider, sustainable and inclusive economic transformation. The opportunity is to rethink economies, consumption and production choices, urbanization and settlement patterns—and redirect these in favor of productive work, shared prosperity and sustainable development,” she added.
Commissioner Rachel Herrera of the CCC, which is under the Office of the President, committed to organize briefings with the Cabinet and the House and Senate climate change committees in the coming weeks.
Warning to the world
“The IPCC’s report makes it abundantly clear that anyone who supports the fossil-fuel industry is knowingly contributing to the untold suffering around the world.—The report is a wake-up call for decision-makers at every level,” said Chuck Baclagon of 350.org Asia, in a message sent to the BusinessMirror through social media.
He explained that the 1.5°C threshold is a red line for human survival and a more stable climate. “It is the window for keeping warming below that limit is closing fast,” he said.
“The impacts from climate change are significantly worse at 2°C than at 1.5°C for people and all of the Earth’s systems exacerbating inequality in how the impacts of a changing climate are already impacting people worldwide,” he said.
Limiting warming to 1.5°C, he said, gives the best hope to keep islands and coastal cities above water, and coral reefs healthy, while reducing the likelihood that deadly heat waves and wildfires become more common, avoiding even heavier precipitation and more dangerous storms, and much more.
“A fast and fair transition away from fossil fuels to a renewable-energy economy must protect these most vulnerable communities,” he said.
Gargantuan task
Gerry Arances, executive director of the Center for Energy, Ecology and Development (CEED), meanwhile said the task is gargantuan for humanity to avoid runaway and devastating climate change.
As a response, the Power for People Coalition, of which CEED is a primary mover and organizer, asserted the need to embark immediately to 100-percent renewable-energy systems in the country, and globally, a key contribution to combatting climate challenge and to address the continuous high prices of basic commodities in the country, specifically electricity, which is now dominated by imported coal and fossil fuels.
“The IPCC report indicates a potential system transition in electricity generation, following developments in solar energy, wind energy and electricity storage technologies. This echoes our call for policy-makers to see the well-established economic, social and ecological viability of rapidly transitioning toward more renewable energy given the demand to globally abandon coal,” he said.
Urgent necessity
John Leo Algo, science policy associate of the Climate Reality Project Philippines, said preparing for future impacts is an urgent necessity.
“In a world warmer by 2°C compared to 1.5°C, more super typhoons will affect local communities, which will place the country’s disaster risk-reduction management system to the test. Sea levels will rise by an additional 1 meter, displacing millions of Filipinos in both cities and rural areas. Over 99 percent of coral reefs may be irreversibly lost, which has massive implications on marine biodiversity and the economy,” he said.
He said higher temperatures on both lands and oceans will result in lower agricultural outputs. Yields of maize, rice, wheat and other crops will be reduced more in the 2°C scenario. This threatens food and water security and the livelihoods of the farming and fishing sectors, which are two of the most impoverished in the nation.
“The risks on human health would also be magnified, especially at higher temperatures. In megacities, such as Metro Manila, 350 million more people will be exposed to deadly heat stress by 2050. Further global warming would also bring about a more efficient transmission of infectious diseases, such as dengue, especially in urban areas. Such developments would result in more Filipinos suffering from poverty by 2050. The poor and vulnerable sectors are of higher risk from projected declines in food and water availability, higher prices of goods and services and higher health risks, which presents massive challenges to national development,” he said.
Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions from all sectors remain the more effective strategy, he said, specifically, cleaner energy sources, such as renewables and biomass, must comprise 70 percent to 85 percent of the global energy mix, with coal being rapidly phased out and oil and natural gas being utilized more sparingly until mid-century, he said.
The Philippines remain one of the highly vulnerable countries on the impact of climate change. It is sure to be the first to suffer the impact, and perhaps the last to recover despite its so-called resiliency, because of its less-than-desired adaptive capacity.
Yet again, as we face the devastating impact of climate change, the question remains: Are we doing it right? Or better yet, are we on the right path?
Image credits: Ditto de la Rosa/Haribon Foundation, Louise Far/ICSC