THE national government may attain its economic growth targets under the Duterte administration, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
In a report, the OECD said the economic growth of Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines may average 5 percent to 7 percent annually in the medium term.
The OECD is a group of 34 countries and includes the world’s richest countries, such as Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States, among others.
“Emerging developing countries in Southeast Asia are projected to continue experiencing robust growth over the medium term, at least matching their performance of the previous decade,” the OECD said.
The OECD expects inflation to also be within check this year. It said inflation would average around 3.9 percent, which is below government expectations.
On Monday the interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) decided to adjust inflation projections to a range of 4 percent to 4.5 percent this year and 2 percent to 4 percent annually between 2019 and 2022.
The OECD expects food inflation to average 4.5 percent in 2018, from 3.4 percent in 2017. The Philippines’s food inflation is expected to be higher than Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand this year.
“Inflation rates are projected to increase over the next few years in both advanced and emerging market and developing economies, reflecting the recovery in demand and the increase in commodity prices, including energy prices,” the OECD said.
The national government targets to grow the economy by 7 percent to 8 percent in the medium term and reduce poverty incidence to 14 percent from the current 21.6 percent.
This will contribute to efforts to increase per-capita income levels to upper middle- income country levels as early as next year.
This will also be in line with the Philippines AmBisyon to become a high-income country by 2040.
The Philippines is considered a lower middle-income country with a per-capita GNI of around $3,500 as of 2016.
The World Bank said lower middle income economies, like the Philippines, have a GNI per capita of between $1,026 and $4,035.
As of 2016, the World Bank said low-income economies are defined as those with a GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method, of $1,025 or less in 2015.
Upper middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of between $4,036 and $12,475; while high-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of $12,476 or more.