The country’s milled-rice production this year could settle at 12.78 million metric tons (MMT), 5.35 percent higher than the 12.13 MMT recorded output last year, according to the latest forecast of the United Nations’s Food Agriculture Organization (FAO).
Through its marketing outlook arm Agricultural Market Information System (Amis), the FAO hiked its projection for Philippine milled-rice production this year by 1.614 percent, or by 203,000 MT, from its earlier forecast of 12.577 MMT.
“In the Philippines harvesting has begun for wet-season rice planted in July to August under generally favorable conditions,” Amis said in its December Market Monitor published recently.
“Heavy rainfall and cyclones in October and November brought flood damage to northern regions of Luzon island, affecting final yields,” Amis added. The latest iteration of Amis’s monthly monitoring report would be the last issuance for this year.
In November the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) projected that the country’s paddy-rice production for 2017 would reach 19.4 MMT, 10.11 percent higher than the 18.15 MMT produced last year.
The PSA said in the October round of its report, titled “Rice and Corn Situation Outlook,” the projected paddy output of 7.45 MMT in the October-to-December period would allow the Philippines to end the year with a bigger rice supply.
“Probable palay production for the October-to-December period may surpass the 2016 level by 6.26 percent. The anticipated increment in output may be attributed to increase in yield resulting from sustained use of high-yielding varieties, coupled with sufficient water supply during the early stages of crop development,” the PSA report read.
The PSA said its forecast for the fourth quarter was based on standing crop. Despite the contraction in harvest area to 1.86 million hectares, from last year’s record of 1.88 million hectares, the report noted that yield per hectare may improve by nearly 6 percent to 3.99 MT from 3.73 MT last year.
“Substantial increments in output may be anticipated in the Cordillera Administrative Region [CAR], Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Bicol region and Central Visayas,” the report read.
“Probable growths in production may be attributed to possible increase in yield in most regions, except Western Visayas, Davao region, Caraga and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao [ARMM]. This may be attributed to sustained use of high-yielding varieties, coupled with sufficient water supply/rainfall,” it added.
Because of the projected hike in fourth-quarter output, the PSA added paddy production in the second half of the year would reach 10.84 MMT, 8.61 percent higher than the 9.98 MMT produced in 2016.
“Harvest area may expand by 3.46 percent to 2.72 million hectares, from 2.63 million hectares. Yield per hectare may rise to 3.99 MT, or by 4.98 percent, from 3.8 MT,” the report read.
For the whole of 2017, the improvement in yield is expected to settle at 4.03 MT per hectare, from last year’s 3.87 MT, while harvest area would expand to 4.81 million hectares.
Based on farmers’ planting intentions, the PSA said paddy output in the first quarter of 2018 would go up by nearly 3 percent to 4.53 MMT, from 4.41 MMT recorded in the same period in 2017.
“Probable increments in production may be expected among regions, except CAR, Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula and the ARMM,” the report read.
Citing forecast from the US Climate Prediction Center, the Amis report said there is a high probability that the Philippines would experience a prolonged La Niña next year, resulting in higher rice production during the summer harvest.
“On November 9 the US Climate Prediction Center announced a change in La Niña status from Watch to Advisory, meaning that La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue. The probability of continuation through February is about 70 percent, double the typical probability for this period. There is a 50 percent chance thereafter of La Niña persisting through April 2018,” the report read.
“Above-normal rains are favored for Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, and parts of Southeast Asia [the Philippines, Malaysia and eastern Indonesia],” it added.