SEOUL—A Korean expert on Asean and Oceania affairs has told visiting journalists from the Philippines, India and Indonesia that the 300,000 workers from Southeast Asia (SEA) are bound to suffer if the current problem with North Korea becomes unmanageable.
“Southeast Asia is our No. 2 trading partner. We have invested a lot in SEA and 300,000 SEA people in the Korean peninsula…would be in danger if we stop our trade, our investment. There will be damage to the region, as well, if there is a ‘situation’,” according to Lee Jaehyun sr. fellow and a PhD holder on Asean and Oceania Studies Program.
Currently, the Philippines has 63,000 Filipinos living mostly in Seoul out of a population of 50.6 million, according to a 2015 estimate.
Lee, speaking before foreign journalists invited by the Korea Press Foundation, is urging SEA nations to be assertive and tell South Korea what they want Seoul to do for them.
“[The] Southeast Asian region has not shown much interest in South Korea,” he noted.
“I don’t hear much about SEA voice [saying]: ‘Hey South Korea, you have to do this for Asean,’” Lee said.
He added there should be some inputs from Asean countries on what they want from the Korean government or what South Korea can do for the region.
From his perspective, he sees that Asean looks at South Korea as a second-tier partner, not seeing their contributions to the region and the wider East Asia.
“It is time you guys have to raise your voice. Hey Korea, you have this much economic power, you have this much and you have to do this and this for the whole region,” Lee insisted, adding, “it will be much easier for South Korean government to follow up whatever Asean wants”.
“It is just six hours away from Korea to SEA [by plane] but still we don’t really know what SEA thinks for those in South Korea. It will be better if you come up with your own voice first. We’re just waiting what South Korea can do, [for you],” he said.
Lee said he has many friends from the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia in the diplomatic and security sector, “but I never heard from them what South Korea has to do with SEA or the whole region.”
At the same time, he added that Seoul had made friends with SEA only “during rainy days but not in sunny days”.
“True cooperation and partnership should not be like that. We always have to be friends in rainy and sunny days,” he added.
Lee had proposed that, if Seoul wants SEA to be a part of this North Korean peninsula question, “then we have to provide our proper seat for SEA countries to be a part of the Napci [Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative]”.
The Sejong Institute said South Korea has to face the rise of China, the historical revisionism in Japan and mounting nationalistic responses from its neighbors, the return of assertive Russia, and an anachronistic North Korea with its nuclear ambitions.
“It is against this backdrop that the [previous] Park Geun-hye government is pursuing the Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative to promote sustainable peace and cooperation.
When asked about the prospect of reunification with North Korea, Lee said 10 years ago “100 percent of South Korea is in support of reunification.”
However, he said about 50 percent of the younger generation have different ideas about reunification today.
“The young generation is worried about the cost of unification. We have to spend a lot for North Korea to elevate the economy and then it means the social welfare for Seoul will decrease and we have to pay more taxes.”
“And if North Korean people come to the South, they have to compete for already scarce things, like good jobs, but the most dangerous jobs are done by imported workers,” Lee added.
He said there are a total of 1 million foreign workers in Seoul “and those foreign workers are filling the gap.”
“I can’t blame the young generation if they want more prestigious jobs, they want more well-paying jobs, they want to move up and the bottom would be filled by foreign workers.”
Asked whether they are still for reunification even if the United States attack North Korea, Lee said: “Then it means the last day of North Korea. They can’t compete against the US military.”
“And even if there’s sign the US is attacking North Korea, just imagine what they can do. Definitely, if they use one of their weapons against the US, South Korea and Japan, it is not the last day of North Korea but it could be potentially the last day for South Korea,” Lee said.
However, he qualified that North Korea would start military action against Seoul or Tokyo or the US only under an “extreme crisis”.
Asked what would constitute extreme crisis for North Korea, Lee said it would be “economic collapse or if they are extremely threatened by the US”.
If that happens, however, Lee said, “Then it might be the last day of North Korea, then we have to do whatever we can do”.
On the other hand, if the North’s aggressive leader suddenly dies, whether by natural causes, such as a heart attack or assassination, Lee said, “There will be serious turmoil in North Korea”.
“Because every power is concentrated in Kim Jung-on and so when Kim is gone, who is going to make the decision and who knows what?”
He added: “And therefore, it will create some serious trouble for regional countries if Kim is suddenly gone.”He said maybe China will get itself involved and grab any nuclear materials, like what happened in the collapse of the Soviet Union.
“Other countries will be serious about the misuse of nuclear weapons and this can happen in North Korea, prompting China to get into North Korea.”