INFLATION in the country could have dipped below 1 percent in July, but it can still further decelerate coming into August, several economists said.
Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) research officer Nicolas Antonio said he is looking at inflation to fall to 0.9 percent in July this year.
However, he said inflation is still likely to bottom out in August before resuming closer to the inflation target, as the effect of the oil-price decrease wanes.
Mapa’s forecast is within the Bangko Sentral governor’s forecast for the month at 0.5 percent to 1.3 percent.
ING Bank Manila economist Joey Cuyegkeng also sees inflation to hit 0.9 percent in July this year, and is still expected to creep higher toward the end of the year.
“We expect average inflation rate of 1.7 percent for 2015 and 2.8 percent in 2016,” Cuyegkeng said.
Cuyegkeng’s average forecast for inflation for the year is below the government’s target range for the year, at 2 percent to 4 percent.
Security Bank economist Patrick Ella also said that July may not have the lowest inflation for the year, as commodity prices are still stalling. He forecasts inflation to hit 0.89 percent for the month.
Ella also said the low inflation cycle is “absolutely nowhere” near posing a threat to the country’s economic stability.
Banco de Oro chief market strategist Jonathan Ravelas, meanwhile, sees inflation hitting 1 percent in July, while DBS Bank economist Gundy Cahyadi said July inflation may likely hit 1.2 percent.
All economists’ forecast point to a certain deceleration of inflation from the record-low 1.2 percent seen in June.
The Philippine Statistics Authority will announce inflation data on the first week of August.