Local output, measured as the gross domestic product (GDP), was seen to have bounced back in the final three months of 2014 to 6.1 percent, indicating a more vibrant economy than had been witnessed in recent months, researchers at Moody’s Analytics said.
At its weekly Asia-Pacific Economic Data Preview, the nonrating unit of the sovereign credit watcher Moody’s Investors Service said the $270-billion Philippine economy was poised to expand in excess of 6 percent for the period, no matter the global headwinds tending to limit the country’s capacity to post strong growth yet again for the period.
If Moody’s Analytics is proven right, the full-year growth in 2014 should average 6 percent, sharply lower than the growth in 2013, averaging 7.2 percent.
The forecast growth was also lower than the fourth-quarter expansion in 2013, averaging 6.3 percent, when Supertyphoon Yolanda (international code name Haiyan) devastated a good part of the productive areas of the country.
The Philippines posted rather disappointing growth numbers in the third quarter last year, owing to tepid agricultural production and the national government’s inability to disburse budgeted funds for the productive sectors during the period.
“A fall in agricultural production and a decline in government spending dragged third-quarter GDP [gross domestic product] growth to its slowest pace in three years. These factors should be transitory, and we expect economic growth to rebound in the fourth-quarter report,” Moody’s Analytics said.
Moody’s Analytics, nevertheless, said business and investment confidence remained buoyant, no matter the quarter-on-quarter slowdown last year.
“Business sentiment and investment remain buoyant and should make a solid contribution to growth. Consumer demand accounts for 70 percent of GDP, and will continue to grow at around 5 percent year on year,” Moody’s Analytics said.
The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to report on the country’s growth numbers in the final three months of 2014 on Thursday, January 29.