Paddy production in the fourth quarter would be lower than 7.45 million metric tons (MMT) due to the onslaught of typhoons and pests, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
In its report, titled “Updates on October-December 2017 Palay and Corn Forecasts,” which was published recently, the PSA revised downward its projection for unmilled rice production in the fourth quarter due to the losses incurred by the palay sector in
recent months. From its initial forecast of 7.45 MMT for the October-to-December period, the PSA now sees output at 7.4 MMT.
“The probable decrement in palay production may be attributed to: effects of continuous rains during reproductive and maturing stages of the crop which resulted to lodging of crop in Mindoro Occidental, Isabela, Kalinga, Rizal, Aurora and Quirino; damaged brought by Typhoon Odette and aggravated monsoon rains in Cagayan,” the report read.
“Harvest area may decline by 0.1 percent, from 1.86 million hectares. Likewise, yield per hectare may decline to 3.97 metric tons [MT] from 3.99 MT,” it added.
The PSA said typhoons Maring, Paolo and Ramil cut palay output in the provinces of Laguna, Quezon, Zamboanga Norte and Mindoro Oriental.
Rice-bug and stem-borer infestations in Iloilo and Sultan Kudarat, as well as the occurrence of bacterial-blight blast and dead-heart diseases in Iloilo contributed to the downward revision of palay forecast in the fourth quarter, according to the PSA.
“About 1.19 million hectares, or 64.2 percent, of the updated standing crop have been harvested,”
it added.
The PSA said 345,170 hectares, or 29.9 percent, of the farmers’ planting intentions for the first quarter of 2018 have already materialized.
In the October round of its report, titled “Rice and Corn Situation Outlook,” the PSA said paddy output in the fourth quarter would reach 7.45 MMT.
“Probable palay production for the October-to-December period may surpass the 2016 level by 6.26 percent.
The anticipated increment in output may be attributed to increase in yield resulting from sustained use of high-yielding varieties coupled with sufficient water supply during the early stages of crop development,” the PSA report read.
Despite the contraction in harvest area to 1.86 million hectares, from last year’s record of 1.88 million hectares, the report noted that yield per hectare may improve by nearly 6 percent to 3.99 MT, from 3.73 MT last year.
The PSA also revised downward its projection for corn production in the fourth quarter to 1.62 MMT, from 1.63 MMT.
“[It] may be 6.2 percent below than previous year’s level of 1.73 million MT,” the PSA report read. “Harvest area may remain at 568,480 hectares. Yield may lessen to 2.85 MT per hectare from 2.88 MT level.”
The PSA said the revision in its forecast was brought about by damages caused by flash floods and typhoons in corn areas of Isabela, Zamboanga City, South Cotabato and
Zamboanga Norte.
It added that continuous rain in Quirino, Cebu, Batangas, Kalinga, Bohol and rat infestations in Bukidnon, Sarangani and South Cotabato would affect the country’s total corn output in the October-to-December period.