The world will need between 40 percent and 50 pecent more water, energy and food by 2030. I found this statement in Shell’s “New Lens Scenarios.” This is in 13 years from now! The question is: What needs to be done today in order to deliver the additional water, energy and food?
We have to bear in mind that we are going through significant demographic transitions, involving aging populations in some places (in many parts of Europe, in Japan, in China due to the one-child policy, and even in Thailand), youth bulges in others (definitely in the Philippines), and relentless urbanization in both fast-emerging and less-developed economies (again, the Philippines is a good example, given the fact that agriculture is not becoming an attractive industry and that the young people born in rural areas are moving into theurban areas).
Due to prosperity and the growing food demand, the food resource footprint (land, water, energy) of agriculture/food must increase significantly as proteins take over from carbohydrates in diets. Look at the initial successes of companies like Pamora and Mauswags!!! The Philippine poultry farm, Pamora, is offering free-range chicken and eggs, and states: “All natural chicken with no hormones, chemicals and antibiotics.” Pamora further states: “Pamora chicken are grown 81 days for optimum quality. Eight percent total fat content with real chicken taste.” Mauswag Agribusiness just received perks from the Board of Investments for its P36.4-million integrated facility involving the planting of Moringa oleifera and processing it into powder form, sold to domestic markets, such as pharmaceutical companies, natural health products manufacturers, bakeries and supermarkets, as well as being exported to Japan, South Korea, the United States and Europe.
“Food versus fuel” is something that has to be fully understood by the government. In previous columns I have argued that there is technology available to grow food below solar panels.
Urban planning requires visionary leadership, including urban farming—we see the first good results in places like Singapore and Quezon City. Of course, much more needs to be done.
Given this scenario, can somebody tell me why there is not more emphasis in getting agri-business, agri-food supply chains going? Are we morally prepared to leave the next generation to deal with this? If steps are taken sooner rather than later, will we accept the potential for economic damage and frustrations from policy mistakes? Are we ready to explore step-wise policy implementations that unleash the power of the commercial engine to deliver the transition to have the additional food, energy and water in 13 years?
The wisdom of our choices, individually and collectively, is key. There are both positive and troubling features in the decisions that have to be made.
The more clearly we see the complex dynamics of tomorrow’s world, the better we might navigate a path through the turbulence to calmer environments.
We, I understand us as individuals, the private sector, civil society and, of course, local and national government.
Comments are welcome; contact me via e-mail Schumacher@mcasia.org