Oil nearing $100 a barrel red flag for central banks’ inflation fight
Just as global monetary policy switches toward high-altitude cruise control, another bout of turbulence is bearing down on the world economy with surging oil prices.
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Just as global monetary policy switches toward high-altitude cruise control, another bout of turbulence is bearing down on the world economy with surging oil prices.
WASHINGTON—The US economy turned in the weakest performance in three years in the January-March quarter as consumers sharply slowed their spending. The result fell far short of President Donald J. Trump’s ambitious growth targets and underscores the challenges of accelerating economic expansion.
Mike McCabe’s neighbors in rural Gillespie, Illinois, consider him lucky. After being out of work for a year, he landed a job in January making cardboard boxes at a nearby Georgia-Pacific plant for $19.60 an hour.
SHANGHAI—China’s economic data is usually very predictable. But occasionally there are surprises, though so small that by other countries’ standards they would barely be noticed.
WASHINGTON—For President Donald J. Trump and his economic advisers, the strong February jobs report was a cause for celebration —and a first step toward delivering on the president’s promise of faster economic growth.
By Shivani Vora | New York Times News Service
One of the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) biggest skeptics about the strength of the global expansion signaled the US economy may be strong enough to withstand an interest-rate increase soon, as key policy-makers coalesce around tightening at their next meeting in mid-March.
According to press reports, the Trump administration is basing its budget projections on the assumption that the US economy will grow very rapidly over the next decade—in fact, almost twice as fast as independent institutions like the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve expect. There is, as far as we can tell, no serious analysis behind this optimism; instead, the number was plugged in to make the fiscal outlook appear better.
Nobel prize economist Joseph Stiglitz, speaking on behalf of other Nobel winners, said: “There is a broad consensus that the kind of policies our president-elect has proposed are among the policies that will not work.”
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is taking a cautious stance toward the policies of US President-elect Donald J. Trump, who takes office this week, assuming a modest boost to the US economy from his promise of fiscal stimulus.
For much of 2016, things seemed to be going well in emerging markets. A pickup in commodity prices signaled that the global economy (and China’s, in particular) was more robust than feared as the year began. In the manufacturing sector, the average level of the purchasing managers’ index in developing countries ticked up from 49 at the start of the year (indicating contraction) to 51 (expansion) by October, according to Goldman Sachs.
Donald Trump won the presidency by pledging to restore a vanished and golden economic era, when growth roared, factory jobs flourished and America sat unchallenged atop the global economy.
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