“HISTORY teaches us that bad news doesn’t get better with age and six years ago, I wrote a piece in the Wall Street Journal, saying just that, that you have to confront this type of aggression or it will roll along and it’s harder to do something about it.”
This was how former United States senator, assistant secretary of defense and secretary of the Navy James H. Webb Jr. described the incrementally aggressive moves of Beijing in the South China Sea (SCS), days after the most recent near-confrontation between a Chinese destroyer and a US vessel conducting freedom of navigation operations (Fonops).
Guesting at the Rotary Club of Manila on Thursday, Webb asserted that economic growth can never justify “territorial expansion,” adding that—with their long shared history and special relations between their peoples—the Philippines and the US must continue to strengthen their relations “in order to guarantee stability in this part of the world.”
He suggested that affected claimant countries like the Philippines condemn Chinese militarization in the strategic waterways “and work together multilaterally,” but lamented that China refused to follow a multilateral approach.
“I think our military in recent years has started to do much more; we cannot accept that [China’s refusal to allow the US and its allies to free passage in the SCS.]” At the same time, he conceded, that it has indeed taken the US a long time—nearly two decades—to act decisively after China started building ostensible “fishermen’s shelters” that later became the nucleus of the now sprawling fortified facilities in the disputed waters.
He revealed that he was one of those in Washington who first flagged the danger of China’s expansionist strategy, and was joined in this regard by his Filipino friend and fellow Annapolis graduate, the late Rep. Roilo Golez.
Asked by a member of the audience how the US sees the end game in the SCS, Webb said: “Speaking as a member of the Senate, we’re not looking for war, but we’re looking for ways to stop aggression so that there won’t be a war, and that’s the best answer I can do.”
Close call
According to a Bloomberg report, the “close call” between a US and Chinese destroyers in the disputed South China Sea last week added to tensions between two countries already embroiled in an escalating trade war.
The US accused China’s navy of “unsafe and unprofessional” conduct near an occupied reef in the South China Sea after a Chinese destroyer maneuvered near the bow of the USS Decatur, an Aegis-class destroyer based in San Diego.
While close encounters between US and Chinese forces are hardly unprecedented, particularly in the South China Sea, analysts said these incidents could increase as the broader relationship between Washington and Beijing comes under strain.
The world’s two biggest economies are locked in a trade war, and years of Chinese investment in its military—the country unveiled its first domestically built aircraft carrier last year—mean it can deploy with greater confidence against the US and other countries.
“Everything in the bilateral relationship is connected,” said Bonnie Glaser, the director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Trade and military power are linked in the Chinese point of view, and the Trump administration’s policy seems to be to “thwart China’s rise to power in trade and everything else,” she added.
The USS Decatur was sailing “in the vicinity” of Gaven Reefs on Sunday, when a Chinese destroyer confronted it in “an unsafe and unprofessional maneuver,” according to Lt. Cmdr. Tim Gorman, a spokesman for the US Pacific Fleet. The destroyer “approached within 45 yards of Decatur’s bow, after which Decatur maneuvered to prevent a collision.”
China accused the US of violating its “indisputable sovereignty,” a claim that runs counter to a 2016 ruling by an international arbitration panel in The Hague that acted on a case filed by Manila. “We strongly urge the US side to immediately correct its mistake and stop such provocative actions to avoid undermining China-US relations and regional peace and stability,” Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hua Chunying said on Tuesday in a statement.
Modern destroyers are among the largest US surface warships, outstripping the previous generations of the vessels that fought in World Wars I and II. The Decatur is 505 feet long and carries a crew of about 300, according to the Navy.
Gaven Reefs is a part of the Spratly Islands archipelago claimed by China and other nations. China first took possession of what maritime experts call the “feature” in 1988 and has built what was mostly a set of submerged coral into a paved development with communications towers, wind turbines and administrative buildings, according to an analysis of aerial photographs by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS.
While the naval near-miss was reported by CNN on Sunday, details about the confrontation only emerged when both sides issued statements on Tuesday.
Competing claims
Beijing claims more than 80 percent of the South China Sea, based on a 1947 map showing vague dashes—the so-called nine-dash line. Five other countries, including Vietnam and the Philippines, have also staked claims in the area, one of the world’s busiest shipping routes.
Although the US takes no position on the competing claims, its navy regularly carries out “freedom of navigation operations,” or Fonops, by sending warships and aircraft near disputed waters to demonstrate the right to travel through what it considers international waters and airspace. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has sought to contest such moves in territory it considers China’s.
“No surprise that the PLA is challenging Fonops near Spratlys,” tweeted Zack Cooper, who studies US defense strategy in Asia at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “This type of limited probe is an attempt to contest rules and norms. It fails as long as we continue to operate.”
The incident would have contravened the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea that was agreed to by China, the US and other countries in 2014, said Collin Koh Swee Lean, research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. The code aims to curb the chances of accidents and reducing the risk of escalation if one occurs.
“The reported 45 yards separation gives extremely little margin for safety,” Koh said. “It seems to me that this was deliberate and could have been sanctioned by higher levels as part of the retaliatory moves by China in recent times.”
Fraught maneuvers
Beijing last month refused a US warship entry to Hong Kong, and its top naval officer canceled a high-level meeting with his US counterpart. The Associated Press reported on Monday that Defense Secretary James Mattis had dropped plans to visit China later this month, citing US defense officials it didn’t identify.
The Decatur incident represented at least the second time this year that the US has accused the Chinese navy of acting unprofessionally. In May, Chinese warships warned two US navy ships away from the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea and maneuvered in a “safe, but unprofessional” manner, according to a CBS report. That assessment meant the ships maneuvered erratically without a collision risk, it said.
The US didn’t show signs of being intimidated by the incident. The country will “continue to fly, sail and operate anywhere international law allows,” said Gorman, the Pacific Fleet spokesman.
Image credits: Petty Officer 2nd Class Diana Quinlan/US Navy via AP