THE country’s unmilled rice output could decline by nearly 2 percent to 3.323 million metric tons, from the previous year’s 3.39 MMT, according to latest forecast of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
In its quarterly “Rice and Corn Situation and Outlook” report, the PSA attributed the possible decline to the contraction in harvest area and the decision of farmers to delay planting.
The PSA expects total harvest area for the July-to-September period to shrink by 2.82 percent 829,000 hectares, from 853,000 hectares recorded a year ago.
In contrast, yield per hectare could increase to 4.01 MT per hectare, from 3.98 MT per hectare in 2017, according to the PSA.
“The considerable decreases in production are foreseen in Cagayan Valley, Calabarzon, MIMAROPA and SOCCSKSARGEN,” the PSA said in the report published recently.
“Cutbacks in output may be attributed to delayed plantings due to the late release of irrigation water and late onset of rainfall in Cagayan Valley, Calabarzon, MIMAROPA, Western Visayas, SOCCSKSARGEN and Caraga,” it added.
Based on farmers’ planting intentions, the PSA noted that palay production in the fourth quarter may be higher than the previous year’s level.
“This may be attributed to the perceived availability of irrigation water coupled with occurrence of rain during the planting period,” it said. The PSA did not provide a production forecast for the fourth quarter.
Price drop
Agriculture Secretary Emmanuel F. Piñol said in a Facebook post that he sees the farm-gate price of palay in the third quarter to decline “drastically” due to the influx of imports.
“The farm-gate price of locally produced paddy rice, which went up to an unprecedented level today, could fall drastically this harvest season because of the delay in the arrival of rice supplies from Vietnam and Thailand imported by both the National Food Authority (NFA) and the private sector under the Minimum Access Volume (MAV),” Piñol said on August 15.
“The PSA reported a few days ago that the national average farm-gate price has fallen [from an] all time high of P22 per kilogram (kg) to P21.50 per kg. Prices are expected to fall further at peak harvest season because this will be the time when imported rice is expected to reach the market,” he added.
Piñol said the decline in paddy rice prices is a “welcome relief” for consumers as this could ease the rise in the retail price of the staple.
“The delay in the arrival of rice imported by both the NFA and the private sector is also the main factor behind the spike in the price of rice in the market,” he said. The agriculture chief said the delay in the arrival of rice imports was due to by the conflict between the NFA and the NFA Council.
Piñol noted that rice imports usually arrive during the country’s lean season, which runs from July to September, to beef up local supplies. The country has minimal harvest during the lean months.
“The issuance of the import permits both for NFA and the private sector, however, was delayed because of a disagreement between the NFA and the NFA Council, the governing body composed of several government agencies (but not including the Department of Agriculture), over the mode of importation,” he said.
Furthermore, Piñol said the late arrival of the imported rice has “placed the country’s buffer supply at critical level resulting in speculation in the market which further pushed rice prices up.”
“The private sector importation, however, is expected to arrive by the end of August toward early-September by which time the farmers would already start harvesting their paddy rice,” he said.
Palay production in the second quarter reached 4.09 MMT, 1.44 percent lower than the 4.15 MMT recorded output a year ago due to contracted harvest area. Harvest area shrank by 1.52 percent to 932,790 hectares, from 947,190 hectares.