In July last year President Duterte launched his bloody war against illegal drugs, a campaign that human-rights advocates claimed has resulted in the systematic killings of lowly drug peddlers and suspected drug users, especially in Metro Manila.
Even before that, Duterte has also unofficially jump-started the peace talks with communist rebels through the National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP), which continued months into his official Palace term without a hitch.
These major initiatives, which even buoyed the President’s popularity, at least at the home front, were later followed up by Duterte with equally important undertakings, but still in the areas of security, law enforcement and even diplomacy.
Among others, these events were the President’s campaign against terrorism in Mindanao, with an explicit order to the military to lick the problem the soonest possible time; and the diplomatic shift toward the East, with China and Russia at the center.
However, several months later—seven months to be exact—nearly all of these unprecedented initiatives, which are on top of the Duterte administration’s thrust of governance, appear to have crumbled, if not ebbed to their lowest.
All but one—the steer toward China and Russia—remain on an uphill. Meantime, the fight against terrorism, under the leadership of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff Gen. Eduardo M. Año, is still painstakingly attempting to punch a hole.
It was not a joke—to borrow the phrase of the President, who had admitted two in every five statements he issues are wisecracks—to see the administration’s core programs lose traction and wither.
After all, these historic developments could have assured Duterte a place in the country’s history—the popular leader who has ended the decades-old communist insurgency, put back law and order in the country and ended the pestering problem of terrorism.
Peace talks with the Left
Unless the government and the NDFP, the umbrella organization of democratic forces and all left-leaning groups in the country, goes back to the negotiating table—for which the latter must also do its share—the country’s security landscape will remain in tatters.
As it is now, the conflict with the New People’s Army (NPA), the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), will revert the military to its original three internal campaign focus—the Moro rebellion, terrorism in the South and the communist-inspired insurgency.
Never mind the territorial issue with China, as the Commander in Chief has already lost interest in it.
Until the moribund talks with the NDFP was resuscitated by the Duterte administration, the AFP listed the CPP-NPA-NDFP as the No. 1 threat group in the country, followed by the Moro rebellion and terrorism in Mindanao in that order.
Both Defense Secretary Delfin N. Lorenzana and Año have expressed readiness by the government to reengage the NDFP in peace negotiations, but without preconditions from the latter. They said rebels must also stop their attacks.
Lorenzana even said the government could start back-channeling talks with NDFP negotiators.
The Left has taken up the challenge by ordering the release of its six prisoners of war that it snatched in various operations around the country, days after and even before the collapse of the talks.
And in response to the call of Lorenzana for a cease in their attacks, the rebels also called for a halt to the military’s massing of troops or at least their presence under the pretext of civil-military operations in areas where the rebels are located.
But Malacañang said the talks cannot be continued unless the Commander in Chief sees any reason.
While anticommunist hawks in the military maintained that the AFP could fight a three-pronged conflict, of which it has been doing for the longest time, it could not be denied that the “silencing of the guns” with the rebels could free it up from the main bulk of its operational focus, just like in the case of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.
When the government notched the initial peace agreement with the MILF, soldiers were given the opportunity to principally focus on running after terrorist groups in Mindanao, including the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) and the Maute Group.
While these terrorist groups were solely contained in Mindanao, NPA rebels are scattered across the country.
Before the collapse of the talks with the rebels, both the government and the Left were so optimistic the negotiations would finally show the exit of the region’s longest insurgency movement.
In fact, Duterte, who has built a good relationship with top communist leaders, even exclaimed the rebels will die for him, as some of their legal groups were joining and spearheading rallies and protest over issues they could not agree with the government.
In the AFP, its campaign plan for internal-security operations under the six-year term of its current Commander in Chief, the Development Support and Security Plan (DSSP) Kapayapaan, which replaced the IPSP Bayanihan, was geared toward the peace negotiations and shifted the soldiers’ focus to the security problem in Mindanao.
It was the first time the insurgency was given less emphasis in the campaign plan of the military.
Principally, the DSSP Kapayapaan mandated the AFP to carry out sustained operations in order to neutralize foreign and local terrorist organizations; actively support the Philippine National Police in the war against illegal drugs; chip in to the promotion of peace; and contribute to nation-building.
“The leftists have nothing to worry about. In fact, we expect them to cooperate with us, so that we can work out the attainment of a permanent and lasting peace,” Año even said then.
The termination of the talks with the NDFP led to the increase in the number of encounters with the NPA, which not too long ago was already on its way to being considered as a spent force by the military.
Lorenzana said the lull in the negotiations has been used by the NPA to recruit and increase its armed members to 5,000, although the military leadership has pegged it at 3,700.
On the other hand, Año said at least 30 firefights with rebels have also occurred since the talks were terminated on February 4.
Antiterror drive
The government’s resumption of hostilities with communist rebels now raises skepticism whether it could end the terrorism problem with the ASG, the BIFF and the Maute Group, which are all now working under an ISIS flag under Commander Isnilon Hapilon, since forces would be spread thinly and distract the military’s operational focus.
The AFP has a six-month deadline to “strategically” defeat all the terrorist groups, with the self-imposed time frame having been sketched before the termination of the negotiations with the communists.
But military public-affairs office chief Col. Edgard Arevalo said the deadline was drawn by the military, regardless of the outcome of the talks with the communist rebels.
In fact, Arevalo said that, when the DSSP Kapayapaan was crafted and unveiled, it factored in any possibilities, any contingencies over the negotiations with the Left.
Over the past few weeks, the military killed ASG members in Sulu and Tawi-Tawi, but the terrorist group responded by threatening to behead its 70-year-old German captive by February 26 unless a P30-million ransom is met.
Early this week a Vietnamese vessel was also attacked by armed men, believed to be ASG members, and killed one of its crewmen and abducted seven others.
Drug campaign
Of all the initiatives that were initiated by the government, it was the drive against illegal drugs by the PNP, which occupies the core focus of the Duterte administration, that received the most beating.
Literally, it did not only raise criticisms, but it was dropped in an instant by Duterte after it was implemented for seven months.
Last July the President set a deadline of six months to lick the country of its narcotics problem through the PNP, but he extended it for another six months.
The campaign, however, had been mired by police scalawags, prompting Duterte to declare it will cover his entire term.
In the meantime, the antidrugs drive has been solely given to the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency, with the military tasked to support the effort.
As the President goes back to square one in all of his initiatives, the country spins into a declining “Philippine team,” as former President Fidel V. Ramos has declared.
Image credits: AP/Aaron Favila, AP/Bullit Marquez, AP/Alessandra Tarantino