IT has been an interesting few days in the aftermath of the arbitration decision in favor of the Philippines.
Some are banging the drums of war under the slogan, “Be bold and mighty, forces will come to your aid”—a quote from Canadian clergyman and writer Basil King. “Bold” is usually not a term used to describe Canada.
The United States has undertaken what it is calling “quiet diplomacy”, which, if it was any quieter, would probably put the Chinese government to sleep. We would hope that this is not like the “leading from behind” strategy that turned the “Arab Spring” into a geopolitical disaster of monumental proportions.
Others are complaining that the response from the administration of President Duterte was “tepid”, to use their word.
Recently, one phrase that has cropped up frequently is “measured response”. German Prime Minister Angela Merkel used those words to describe what the German government reaction was to the “Brexit” vote. Indonesia called on China to use a “measured response,” after Indonesian gunboats shot at Chinese fishing vessels poaching in their waters. That seems to be a phrase governments use when they are trying to avoid saying or doing anything stupid.
The one common thought that has been echoed many times in the past few days is that “all parties should respect and comply with the ruling.”
This is all well and good, because the decision by the arbitration panel is just about useless in practical terms, unless the regional and global community gets onboard with something more than a prolonged “measured response”. It is like winning the game by default, because the other team forfeits the game. Of course, that is what China sort of did in this case.
However, we know why China “defaulted.” Its arguments were false and unauthentic, and it could not agree to abide by the decision of the court if it presented evidence to support its claims.
Nonetheless, the Philippines has a problem. While Indonesia may be confiscating Chinese fishing boats, that did not stop them from requesting another $300-million loan from the Chinese Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to help fund the railroad that the Chinese are building for them. Indonesia announced their request the day after the panel’s ruling.
The European Union (EU) would want to help the Philippines, but it has some internal problems with arbitration panel rulings. EU members Slovenia and Croatia have a maritime dispute, too. Croatia pulled out of an arbitration process in 2015 at the same court that ruled on the South China Sea case.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations wants to issue a firm statement backing the Philippines, but it also has some internal disagreements. While other nations’ diplomacy is “measured” or “quiet”, China has been using “checkbook diplomacy” for some time in the region, and apparently it is working.
So now all the parties sit around looking at each other, waiting to see who blinks first. Didn’t we use to play the same game in elementary school?
Image credits: Jimbo Albano
3 comments
We know DU30 will avoid making a mistake about this matter since he is well-rounded with the law. Maybe not with the international law but with our National Constitution especially territorial provisions. He will not make a mistake that will be remembered by his own offspring.
Good analysis and account of what happened. But what’s the recommendation?
I like that game. I knew I couldn’t win so I would blow air into my opponent’s eye. No relation to our game; I just wanted to piss her off.