By Rene Acosta & Jonathan L. Mayuga
FROM North to South, the war with the Moros and communist rebels has caused years of political and economic stagnation for the country, political leaders, who have dealt with the two conflicts, said in their lexicon.
It is for this reason President Duterte is working to mint a separate peace agreement with those in the South and with the National Democratic Front of the Philippines.
But just how huge and immense have been the cost for the country?
There is no exact data as to how much the government has spent in dealing with the almost 47-year-old communist insurgency. The latest data comes from the Swiss group Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). The IDMC said the war with Southeast Asia’s longest-running insurgency has already killed more than 40,000 people as of 2011 and has displaced thousands of families.
“Its [armed conflict] effects [are] felt throughout the country, but are particularly significant in eastern Mindanao, an NPA [New People’s Army] stronghold,” the IDMC noted, referring to the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP).
Another group, the International Crisis Group, noted that during the NPA’s attack of three mining companies in Surigao del Sur in 2011 alone, the rebels damaged more than $1 billion in both business and property.
Last year the Armed Forces Eastern Mindanao Command estimated that business companies in eastern Mindanao have lost about P246 million to attacks blamed on the NPA.
Most of the firms that were attacked were mining companies, logging concessionaires, construction firms and banana plantations.
Bigger costs
WHILE the effects of the conflict with the communist insurgency run into billions of pesos, the losses incurred from the war with the Moros were, however, bigger, according to a report by the Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process (Opapp).
Citing estimates from various groups, including the World Bank, the Opapp said the conflict in Mindanao covering the period of 1970 up to 2001 alone has resulted in economic losses of P2.013 trillion.
The Opapp said the amount nearly equaled the P2.606-trillion national budget last year.
The agency’s data cited only the conflict by the government with the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. The Opapp data do not include the state war against the Abu Sayyaf Group, whose penchant for kidnapping, which raged from 2001 up to the present, has scared potential investors for Western Mindanao.
The Opapp said that, from 1970 to 1996, at least P73 billion has been used to support soldiers in their operations against the MNLF, which has claimed the lives of more than 120,000 people.
It is the war’s casualty on the economy why Mr. Duterte, who is friendly with the Philippine Left, is moving to seal a peace agreement with the rebels.
Peace path
THE government and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) working for peace and development need to put their acts together to bring about that elusive peace and stability in conflict-afflicted areas.
To end the costly war in conflict-afflicted areas, an advocate said the government and NGOs should invest more in peace and development, with investment leaning toward inclusivity where local communities, which are the target beneficiaries, play a more active role in delivering development services.
Francisco Lara, country director of the United Kingdom-based NGO International Alert (IA), said peace is difficult to achieve in the country if it is not accompanied by development. In the same way, Lara said, development can never happen if there is no peace.
“The most direct connection [between peace and development] is that it is difficult to undertake development projects or programs when the places where we are actually putting those interventions in are afflicted with conflict,” said Lara, a development NGO worker for more than two decades.
Violent playground
LARA is currently involved in the peace process between the Government of the Republic of the Philippines and the NDFP. He is a member of the cease-fire committee of the government that is negotiating with the counterpart committee of the NDFP to forge a bilateral cease-fire agreement.
Lara explained that lack of peace, like in many places in the Philippines, prevents the government and even development NGOs to deliver development services.
“Sa mga may conflict areas, ang nangyayari, hindi naabot ng government services, hindi naabot ng NGO services, at hindi naabot ng international development services, because, precisely, violence prevents them from being able to enter those areas.”
This situation, he said, explains why places like Sulu, Basilan, Tawi-Tawi and far-flung areas like the Caraga, which are conflict areas, are also impoverished.
Lara, who studied and completed his doctorate degree at Crisis State Research Centre of the London School of Economics, said there are also instances that development projects trigger conflicts.
One direction
ACCORDING to Lara, “a lot of development projects that are brought to communities sometime favor one group over the other”.
“That [in itself] can cause tensions,” he added.
Lara explained that to prevent tensions that may eventually lead to violent conflicts, the government and NGOs should promote inclusive growth. This growth must not appear to favor one group or sector over another.
Peace and development efforts, he said, have to go in one direction.
“You hit it on the nose: the relationship between development and the link between security inputs versus service inputs.”
Lara explained that sometimes government puts security inputs—military, police—more than services.
Human-rights groups have been demanding for the immediate pullout of state forces in rural areas, complaining that instead of promoting peace and order, the presence of uniformed and armed government personnel brings an atmosphere of fear.
In some cases, human-rights groups complain against police and military allegedly perpetrating human-rights abuse against civilians because of their suspected association to leftist groups.
While some complaints against the presence of state forces in rural areas are valid, Lara said there are also some responsibilities that cannot be left behind.
“For example, if a local government, a mayor or a local business group, complains that merong pumupunta at humingi ng taxes, law enforcement has no choice but to go to an area to address these complaints,” Lara told the BusinessMirror. “Sometimes, human-rights groups complain against violence.”
Lara cited as example the experience of the lumad indigenous people who were caught in the implementation of the government’s counterinsurgency campaign last year. He said the security formula under “Oplan Bayanihan” was to plant peace and development teams in communities and organize lumad who will fight fellow lumad, whom state forces accused of having links with leftists.
“What happens is nagkakaroon ng proxy war [What happens is a war by proxy has started].”
Balanced intervention
ACCORDING to Lara, the government should ensure balance intervention in conflict areas.
Rather than being security-oriented, intervention should be welfare oriented, he explained.
“You cannot blame law enforcers when they are called. There is where the problem lies,” he said. “Both sides have valid claims why they are in the areas.”
The talks between the GRP and the NDFP and between the GRP and the MILF, he said, contain discussions on such issues as part of peace negotiations.
Currently, Lara said peace panels from negotiating parties are after bilateral cease-fire “because unilateral cease-fire is dangerous.”
According to Lara, a cessation of hostilities between the government and the insurgents could come if they both declare a bilateral cease-fire.
However, President Duterte has declared that there will be no release of political prisoners if the NDFP will not agree to a declaration of a bilateral cease-fire.
For its part, the NDFP is demanding the release of political detainees as a condition for cease-fire.
According to Lara, peace negotiators are working out the details to come up with a win-win solution.
“We [still] need to define what constitutes a hostile act,” Lara said. “At the moment, maganit ang NDF because they are after prisoner releases.”
According to Lara, NDF representatives are urging Duterte to release political prisoners, especially the old and sick, who are estimated to number around 400.
“It depends upon the President, but I know the release of prisoners is being done gradually for humanitarian reasons,” he said.
Empowering NGOs
LARA said development services, whether initiated by the Philippine government or by international financing agencies, should be reviewed in terms of its long-term impact on the community.
He explained there are a lot of peace-building groups working in the Philippines and they operate in different areas.
Government or even international financing institutions, he said, should channel resources to NGOs.
NGOs lack the capacity to make significant impact that will bring about development that will help bring peace, particularly in impoverished areas. What they need, he said, is the resources that can only come via government apparatus.
Lara said International Alert focuses on research analysis and capacity building, while others provide services addressing poverty alleviation through various livelihood programs and capacity-building initiatives.
Over the last five years, International Alert has been building a database of violent conflict incidents. The group’s monitoring system aims to provide accurate and timely information about violent conflicts.
Davao leads
THE Davao region tops the list of areas in war-torn Mindanao with the highest violent conflict incidents, a recent IA report said.
Lara said most of the killings monitored from 2011 to 2015 are related to clan wars and tied to territorial or land disputes, while others are related to criminal activities, such as illegal drugs, illegal arms deal and kidnap-for-ransom activities.
Based on IA’s database, the violent conflict incidents in Davao Region outnumbered that of incidents in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (Armm).
During the period, a total of 28,325 incidents took place in the Davao Region as against the 6,759 incidents in the Armm. The top five provinces in terms of number of incidents were Davao del Sur, Davao del Norte, Compostela Valley Davao del Sur and Davao Oriental and Maguindanao, the biggest province in the Armm.
“While the real threat of violent conflict was similar in all the 10 provinces in the two regions, it was actually less frequent and less concentrated in the Armm, which is often seen as the locus of intense and continuous violence in Mindanao,” the IA report said.
Conflict unbound
VIOLENT conflict incidents surged to unprecedented levels in the ARMM last year.
There were 2,444 incidents this year, or more than a third of the total number of incidents for the whole five-year period. In the Davao Region, the number of incidents slid by 7 percent to 5,688 in 2015 from the previous year.
The surge of violent incidents in the Armm was due to higher political and extremist violence, especially after the Mamasapano tragedy in January 2015, the report said.
Meanwhile, shadow economy-related conflicts and common crimes stayed high in the said areas.
In the Davao region, most of the conflicts stemmed from common crimes.
“While actual numbers fell, they stayed high while a surge in identity-related, mostly gender issues, and shadow economy conflicts offset the decrease,” the IA report said. “Violent conflict in the ARMM was intimately related with the operation of shadow economies, especially the manufacture and trade of illegal weapons and illicit drugs.”
Common crimes
IN the Davao Region, violent conflict was characterized by high levels of common crimes such robberies, alcohol-related violence, and civilian- and community-level disputes over land and other resources in urban or peri-urban areas, the IA report said.
“The scale of violence reported in the cities and towns of the Armm and the Davao region pointed to the evolving role of cities, towns and other urbanizing areas as theaters of violence,” the report added.
Conflict incidence was highest in the urban centers of Cotabato City, Islamic City of Marawi, Parang and Malabang in the Armm mainland, and in the cities of Tagum and Panabo in Davao del Norte.
Conflicts also converged in poor yet less disadvantaged areas rather than in areas that are extremely poor.
In Compostela Valley the municipalities of Nabunturan, Mabini, Maragusan, Asuncion and Carmen, which are either first or second class based on average annual income, showed a high concentration of conflicts.
The IA’s monitoring activities now cover the 15 provinces in the Armm, Davao region and Caraga, as well as Cotabato and Isabela cities, which are within the Armm but are not administered by it.
IA’s monitoring system, called Conflict Alert, is currently the only existing tracker of violent conflict at the subnational level in the Philippines.
The areas covered by the IA’s monitoring system are major sites of rebellion and insurgency, criminal violence and shadow economy-based conflicts.
Complexities complex
PEACE building in conflict areas in the Philippines is complicated, Lara said.
“What we need to address is how intervention of troops or state forces can be coordinated because interventions are not coordinated,” Lara said. “Rebellion is not the cause of most violent conflicts.”
According to Lara, a lot of people were killed because of their involvement in the trade in illegal drugs and illicit weapons and kidnap-for-ransom criminal activities.
“These have nothing to do with rebellion,” he said.
Meanwhile, Lara said the IA has detected an emerging risk of violence from violent extremism like the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (Isis) type in Mindanao.
“These are not rebellion or separatists,” he said. “Caliphate is emerging in Mindanao.”
Lara explained that caliphate may have gained popularity in Mindanao because of the disenchantment of young, idealistic Muslims on the government and fellow Muslim leaders. It has been exacerbated with the failure of the basic Bangsamoro law (BBL), he added.
Lara said Mindanao’s clan leaders can be instrumental in neutralizing the recruitment of violent extremist groups, such as the Maute group, which is being linked to the terrorist Isis group.
“Clan leaders are influential and the government should see this as a window of opportunity to channel efforts to clean [leadership] in Mindanao, to neutralize and prevent violent extremism anchored on caliphate.”
Peace investment
ACCORDING to Lara, the government should bring in investment—but not investment that attracts or generates conflict.
Businesses, he said, are conflict magnets sometimes as they hire security forces who are insensitive to people in host communities.
“They hire security forces who are more ruthless than the military,” Lara said. “Tatakutin ang mga tao [They sow fear on the people’s hearts].”
According to Lara, investors that do business in energy and mining are conflict magnets. “These investments bring in big money, but they also attract different groups. Why are businesses focused on extractive industries rather than agriculture?”
The ongoing “war” in Caraga and Southern Mindanao, he said, is tied to mining.
Indigenous peoples fight each other now because some of them say they favor the project, while others oppose it, according to Lara.
According to Lara, the government should enhance its peace and development program, such as the Payapa at Masaganang Pamayanan (Pamana) Program. Ironically, Pamana is being handled neither by government agencies with expertise on promoting growth and development nor NGOs with skills to reach out to communities in conflict-afflicted areas.
“There’s no evaluation if it [Pamana] has contributed to actual reduction of conflict or violent incidence.”
Lara said different faces of violent conflicts should be looked into by various actors in peace-building especially the media, so as not to paint a bad picture of the situation that is not helping in the peace-building effort.
“We need deeper narratives. We need to come up with timely and accurate information—the actors, the cause of violence,” he said. “We should also know if the violent conflict is resource-related or rebellion-related.”
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